南方周末研究团队通过分析2026年上半年中国消费数据发现，扩大消费已从"可选项"演变为"必选项"1。最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率约为46%，较2025年的52%和"十四五"时期平均58.8%明显下滑1。若要在五年内将最终消费率从约56%提高到62%，按名义GDP年均增长4.5%计算，年均消费增量需多增约2.1万亿元1。7月底中央政治局会议已明确提出加大力度拉动国内需求、重点挖掘服务类消费潜力1。
研究团队指出，当前需要解开"消费能力""消费意愿""优质供给"等五道锁，并识别出五类被压抑的需求释放空间1。具体来看，上半年乘用车国内销量下降21.1%，其中传统燃油车下降27.8%，但乘用车出口443.2万辆、增长71.7%1；新能源领域中，6月新能源零售渗透率达62.8%，自主品牌份额占75.5%1。家具行业表现欠佳，规模以上企业营收2576.1亿元、下降8.6%，利润更是下降52.7%1。服务类消费呈现相对韧性，上半年服务零售额增长5.3%1，其中全国入境外国人2291.4万人次、增长20.4%1，大型演唱会和音乐节票房增长17.7%1。
八个重点城市的社零增速出现分化，落在-2.2%到+2.9%之间1。研究团队认为，消费市场已从"拼总量"转向"拼特色"，各城市表现出不同的消费特色与政策差异1。
China's consumption landscape faces a critical turning point, with final consumption expenditure contributing only approximately 46% to economic growth in the first half of 2026, falling significantly below the 52% recorded in 2025 and the 58.8% average during the 14th Five-Year Plan period 1. This decline underscores the urgency of unlocking suppressed demand across multiple dimensions. Research by the Southern Weekly News team identified five key barriers—consumer purchasing power, consumption willingness, quality supply, consumption environment, and distribution mechanisms—that must be addressed to revitalize the market 1.
To achieve meaningful expansion, China would need to increase annual consumption by approximately 2.1 trillion yuan on average if the final consumption rate rises from roughly 56% to 62% within five years, assuming a 4.5% annual nominal GDP growth rate 1. The central government has already recognized this imperative; the July Central Political Bureau meeting explicitly called for enhanced efforts to stimulate domestic demand, with particular emphasis on unlocking the potential of service consumption 1. Service retail sales grew 5.3% in the first half of 2026, while inbound foreign visitors reached 22.914 million, an increase of 20.4%, alongside entertainment sectors showing promise with large-scale concerts and music festivals recording ticket sales growth of 17.7% 1.
However, traditional consumption segments continue to struggle. Domestic passenger vehicle sales declined 21.1% year-over-year, with conventional fuel vehicles dropping 27.8%, while the furniture industry reported revenue of 257.61 billion yuan, representing an 8.6% decline and a steeper 52.7% profit contraction 1. Conversely, new energy vehicles demonstrated resilience, achieving a retail market penetration rate of 62.8% in June with domestic brands commanding a 75.5% market share, and vehicle exports surged 71.7% to 4.432 million units 1. Across eight major cities analyzed, social retail sales growth rates varied between -2.2% and +2.9%, indicating that China's consumption market has shifted from competing on aggregate volume toward competing on regional characteristics and differentiated consumption profiles 1.
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