分析中共对台军演 效果已不如以往

陆委会副主委沈有忠表示，中共大型军演的效果已不如以往，主要因为成本高而效益低1。他指出，除非发生重大突发事件（如裴洛西访台），否则从整体战略成本考量，中国再次发动大规模军演的代价过高、回报过低1。

国防安全研究院助理研究员钟志东进一步分析，中国今年迄今未再实施大规模"围台军演"，反而改以海警船、公务船等灰色地带手段在台湾东部海域持续活动，形成常态化施压1。这类行动能够降低大型军演引发的国际反弹与政治成本，同时强化对台湾的主权主张1。沈有忠补充，台湾年底将举行选举，中共在此时发动军演可能激化岛内选举议题1。

Taiwan officials and defense analysts have assessed that China's large-scale military exercises targeting Taiwan are losing their strategic impact due to high costs and diminishing returns.1 According to Shen Youzhong, deputy minister of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, the effectiveness of such drills has declined, with the costs proving too steep relative to the benefits gained.1

Shen noted that Taiwan's year-end elections could potentially become more prominent if China were to launch military exercises at this time.1 However, he suggested that absent major unexpected events—such as a visit by a high-profile foreign official to Taiwan—the overall strategic calculation makes launching another massive military operation economically and politically unfavorable for Beijing.1

Rather than conducting large-scale encirclement drills, China has shifted its approach this year, according to Zhong Zhidong, an assistant researcher at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research.1 China has instead increasingly deployed coast guard vessels and government ships in gray-zone operations throughout Taiwan's eastern waters, establishing a pattern of sustained pressure.1 This shift in tactics allows Beijing to reinforce its sovereignty claims while avoiding the significant international backlash and political costs associated with major military exercises.1