陆委会副主委沈有忠表示，中共大型军演的效果已不如以往，主要因为成本高而效益低[1]。他指出，除非发生重大突发事件（如裴洛西访台），否则从整体战略成本考量，中国再次发动大规模军演的代价过高、回报过低[1]。
国防安全研究院助理研究员钟志东进一步分析，中国今年迄今未再实施大规模"围台军演"，反而改以海警船、公务船等灰色地带手段在台湾东部海域持续活动，形成常态化施压[1]。这类行动能够降低大型军演引发的国际反弹与政治成本，同时强化对台湾的主权主张[1]。沈有忠补充，台湾年底将举行选举，中共在此时发动军演可能激化岛内选举议题[1]。
Taiwan officials and defense analysts have assessed that China's large-scale military exercises targeting Taiwan are losing their strategic impact due to high costs and diminishing returns.[1] According to Shen Youzhong, deputy minister of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, the effectiveness of such drills has declined, with the costs proving too steep relative to the benefits gained.[1]
Shen noted that Taiwan's year-end elections could potentially become more prominent if China were to launch military exercises at this time.[1] However, he suggested that absent major unexpected events—such as a visit by a high-profile foreign official to Taiwan—the overall strategic calculation makes launching another massive military operation economically and politically unfavorable for Beijing.[1]
Rather than conducting large-scale encirclement drills, China has shifted its approach this year, according to Zhong Zhidong, an assistant researcher at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research.[1] China has instead increasingly deployed coast guard vessels and government ships in gray-zone operations throughout Taiwan's eastern waters, establishing a pattern of sustained pressure.[1] This shift in tactics allows Beijing to reinforce its sovereignty claims while avoiding the significant international backlash and political costs associated with major military exercises.[1]