美国和伊朗的相互攻击暂停，为外交谈判打开了空间。[1]布伦特原油周一下跌超过9%，跌至每桶88美元以下，较上周100美元以上的水平出现大幅回落。[1]美国驻联合国大使表示，美国攻击伊朗已暂停第二晚，以便为谈判留出余地，伊朗军队发言人也确认德黑兰已暂停该地区的报复性攻击。[1]
本轮地缘政治紧张局势对能源市场造成重大冲击。[1]月初停火协议崩溃后油价随之上升，上周首次突破每桶100美元关口，创下5月以来的最高水平。[1]冲突曾导致全球重要石油运输通道荷尔木兹海峡实际关闭，该海峡通常承载全球约20%的石油和液化天然气贸易。[1]与此形成对比的是，6月美伊签署备忘录暂停军事行动时，油价曾跌至每桶70美元左右。[1]
Oil prices experienced a sharp decline on Monday following a mutual pause in hostilities between the United States and Iran.[1] Brent crude fell below $88 per barrel, a dramatic drop from levels exceeding $100 the previous week.[1] The de-escalation appears to have created space for diplomatic negotiations.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 percent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas typically flows, had effectively closed due to the hostilities.[1] According to the US Ambassador to the United Nations, American attacks on Iran have been suspended for a second consecutive night to allow negotiations to proceed.[1] Iran's military spokesperson confirmed that Tehran has also halted retaliatory strikes in the region.[1]
The ceasefire follows a pattern established earlier in the year. In June, after the US and Iran signed a memorandum suspending military operations, crude prices had fallen to around $70 per barrel.[1] That pause ended this month when a ceasefire agreement collapsed, reigniting price increases that sent crude to $100 per barrel for the first time, marking the highest level since May.[1]