距离11月中期选举不足三周，民主党在控制国会的竞争中处于领先地位。根据预测模型，民主党赢得参议院控制权的概率为75%，赢得众议院的概率为94%1。民主党在普遍投票中领先共和党9.6个百分点1，这一优势反映了选民对现任党派的支持倾向。
特朗普及其政策立场成为本次选举的重要因素。特朗普的净支持率为-22.3，其中59.8%的美国人不赞成其表现，37.6%赞成1。在具体政策议题上，特朗普在通胀问题上的净支持率为-48.9，经济问题为-32.9，贸易问题为-30.61。与此同时，56.2%的美国人反对伊朗战争，35.2%支持，净支持率为-21.01。
经济形势可能对选举结果产生重要影响。美国汽油平均价格为每加仑4.30美元，布伦特油价从9月29日的96.16美元/桶上升至上周五的109.86美元/桶1。9月通胀增长0.6%，核心通胀增长0.3%，年度通胀率为3.7%，实际工资环比下降0.5%1。如果伊朗战争导致的油价上涨和通胀压力持续到选举日期，共和党可能同时失去众议院和参议院的控制权1。
本次中期选举将选出全部435个众议院席位和参议院100个席位中的35个1。当前众议院由共和党以220–215的多数控制，参议院由共和党以53–47占据多数1。
With just over two weeks remaining before the November 3 midterm elections, Democrats are positioned as clear favorites to maintain or gain congressional control. According to Nate Silver's predictive model, Democrats have a 75 percent probability of winning Senate control and a 94 percent probability of maintaining House dominance 1. The party leads Republicans by 9.6 percentage points in generic ballot polling 1.
Headwinds facing Republicans extend across multiple policy areas. Former President Trump's net approval rating stands at negative 22.3, with 59.8 percent disapproving of his performance compared to 37.6 percent approving 1. On key economic issues, Trump's net support is substantially underwater: negative 48.9 on inflation, negative 32.9 on the economy, and negative 30.6 on trade 1. Meanwhile, 56.2 percent of Americans oppose military conflict with Iran while 35.2 percent support it, yielding a net approval of negative 21.0 1. These sentiment gaps coincide with economic pressures facing voters: the average gasoline price has reached $4.30 per gallon, and Brent crude oil has surged from $96.16 per barrel on September 29 to $109.86 by the following Friday 1. September inflation grew 0.6 percent monthly with core inflation at 0.3 percent, while the annual inflation rate reached 3.7 percent; real wages declined 0.5 percent over the same month 1.
The midterm elections will determine all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats 1.
评论
还没有评论，欢迎留下第一条。