太阳能全球首次超越核能发电

根据2026年《世界核工业状况报告》，全球太阳能发电在2025年4月首次超越核能的月度发电量，随后风能或太阳能持续保持单月领先，从2025年3月至2026年6月间每月都超越核能1。2025年全年，太阳能发电量增长30%，首次超过核能年度发电量1。

装机容量的巨大差距反映了两大能源的发展轨迹分化。2025年全球太阳能装机容量增加510 GW至2,383 GW，增幅达27%，风能新增159 GW至1,291 GW，增幅14%1。同期核能装机仅增加1.5 GW至399.5 GW1，年新增容量微乎其微，核能装机容量已基本停滞超过25年1。核能在全球电力发电中的占比下滑至8.8%，创下近40年来新低，不足1996年峰值17.5%的一半1。

核能产业的衰退进一步体现在反应堆数量上。2025年全球新投入4个核反应堆，但关闭7个，出现2021年以来首次年度反应堆数量负增长1。截至2026年7月1日，全球411个反应堆正常运行，其中在建反应堆数量达73个，为自1987年以来最高，但其中37个位于中国1。近年核反应堆建设启动呈现区域集中特征，2020-2025年记录的52次启动中，除1次外均涉及中国或俄罗斯核工业1。与此同时，核能产业融资前景黯淡。法国核能顾问Mycle Schneider指出美国核电公司Holtec延期首次公开募股，原计划融资接近10亿美元，而同业Fermi自2025年10月上市以来股价已下跌80%1。

Global solar energy generation exceeded nuclear power's monthly output for the first time in April 2025, according to the 2026 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 1. From March 2025 to June 2026, wind or solar energy surpassed nuclear generation individually every month 1. This milestone marks a significant shift in the global energy landscape, with renewable sources increasingly displacing nuclear as a primary power generation method.

The divergence between solar and nuclear capacity expansion has been striking. In 2025, global solar installations grew by 510 GW to reach 2,383 GW—a 27 percent increase—while nuclear capacity added only 1.5 GW to total 399.5 GW 1. Wind capacity increased by 159 GW to reach 1,291 GW, a 14 percent growth 1. Solar generation expanded 30 percent over the year and surpassed nuclear's annual output for the first time 1. Meanwhile, nuclear capacity has remained essentially flat for over 25 years 1, and the sector's share of global electricity generation fell to 8.8 percent—its lowest level in four decades, roughly half the 17.5 percent peak reached in 1996 1.

The structural challenges facing nuclear energy are evident in reactor deployment trends. In 2025, four reactors began operations while seven were shut down, marking the first year since 2021 with a net decline in reactor numbers 1. As of July 1, 2026, 411 reactors operated globally, with 73 under construction—the highest number of projects under construction since 1987, though 37 of those are in China 1. Of 52 reactor construction projects started between 2020 and 2025, only one did not involve China or Russia 1. Reflecting broader market headwinds, nuclear energy consultant Mycle Schneider noted that U.S. nuclear company Holtec delayed its initial public offering, originally planned to raise nearly 1 billion dollars, while peer firm Fermi's stock has fallen 80 percent since its October 2025 listing 1.