英国沃里克大学物理学教授Sandra Chapman及其研究团队发现了太阳11年活动周期中的一个关键转折点，在该阶段极端空间天气会突然停止1。通过测量这一阶段的黑子数量，科学家能够提前6至7年预测下一个太阳活动周期的强度1。
研究团队已将这一方法应用于第26个太阳周期的预测，初步预测该周期属于中等强度，黑子数约为100至120个1。根据研究发现，当极端空间天气在约15度太阳纬度以下停止时，这个"关闭点"便成为了可识别的预测信号1。
Researchers at the University of Warwick have identified a new turning point in the sun's 11-year activity cycle that could enable scientists to forecast the intensity of future solar cycles with unprecedented lead time.1 Led by physics professor Sandra Chapman, the team discovered that extreme space weather abruptly ceases at a specific stage during each cycle, marked by a critical threshold of sunspot activity.1 By measuring the number of sunspots at this "switch-off" point, researchers can predict the strength of the subsequent solar cycle approximately 6 to 7 years in advance.1
The breakthrough has already been applied to forecast Solar Cycle 26, with initial predictions suggesting moderate intensity characterized by approximately 100 to 120 sunspots.1 The method identifies the cutoff point when extreme space weather stops occurring below roughly 15 degrees of solar latitude, providing scientists with a clearer window for anticipating solar storms and geomagnetic disruptions.1 This enhanced predictive capability comes at a significant moment in solar research, particularly given that the United Kingdom experienced its most intense geomagnetic storm in over two decades in May 2024.1
评论
还没有评论，欢迎留下第一条。