专家：中国人口数据遭高估 实际人口约12.7亿

美国威斯康辛大学麦迪遜分校高级研究员易富贤发布研究报告，指出中国实际人口约12.7亿，而非官方公布的14亿，两者差距可能高达1.3亿人1。易富贤通过对比中国医疗、教育、疫苗批次和户籍等多源数据发现了系统性高估问题1。

易富贤指出，2018年至2020年中国政府每年核准的疫苗约580万瓶，但官方统计称每年出生人口超过1400万人1。此外，2000年官方统计有1770万名婴儿出生，但2010年人口普查显示该世代10岁人口仅约1440万人，该出生年份约有350万人下落不明1。他认为学校可能将在校生人数灌水20%至50%，医院出生纪录也存在膨胀1。

易富贤表示，"提高生育率很难，修改统计数据却很容易"1。他指出地方政府因绩效考核和补贴激励而有动机夸大人口数字1。华尔街日报指出易富贤过去20年的人口预测比中国官方人口学家的预测更接近实际情况1。

中国总和生育率已降至1.0以下，家庭消费占GDP的比重为39%，远低于全球约60%的水准1。这一判断若正确，将影响中国经济转型的消费基础评估。

Yi Fuxian, a senior researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, has released a research report contending that China's actual population is approximately 1.27 billion rather than the officially reported 1.4 billion, with the discrepancy potentially reaching as high as 130 million people 1. Through comparative analysis of multiple data sources including healthcare, education, vaccine batches, and household registration records, Yi identified systematic overestimation across China's population statistics 1.

Yi's analysis uncovered several specific anomalies supporting this conclusion 1. Between 2018 and 2020, the Chinese government approved approximately 5.8 million vaccine doses annually, yet official statistics reported over 14 million births per year 1. Additionally, while official records indicated 17.7 million babies were born in 2000, the 2010 census showed only approximately 14.4 million individuals in that cohort at age ten, suggesting about 3.5 million people from that birth year remain unaccounted for 1. Schools may be inflating enrollment figures by 20 to 50 percent, and hospital birth records also show signs of expansion 1.

Yi attributed the discrepancies partly to local government incentives, stating that "raising fertility rates is difficult, but modifying statistical data is easy" 1. He pointed out that local officials face performance evaluations and subsidy incentives that create motivation to exaggerate population numbers 1. The accuracy of these findings could significantly affect assessments of China's economic transformation and consumer base, particularly given that China's total fertility rate has already fallen below 1.0, and household consumption accounts for only 39 percent of GDP, substantially lower than the global average of approximately 60 percent 1. The Wall Street Journal has noted that Yi's population projections over the past two decades have proven more accurate than those of China's official demographers 1.