弗林德斯大学等机构的研究团队在《自然人类行为》杂志发表研究成果，揭示了欧洲殖民对澳大利亚原住民人口的严重影响。1 研究估计，殖民前澳大利亚原住民人口约为220万人，远超此前学界估计的25万至100万人。1 平均密度约为每平方公里0.29人。1
研究数据显示，从1788年至1861年的73年间，澳大利亚原住民人口骤减93%，约206万人在此期间超额死亡，平均每年约2.82万人。1 到1861年时，原住民人口仅余殖民前水平的7%。1 根据2021年澳大利亚人口普查数据，现有原住民人口约为1788年估计人口的37%。1 按照目前增长趋势，研究人员预测原住民人口可能需要到2047年才能恢复到殖民前水平。1
这项研究综合了民族志观察、考古发现、遗传重建和计算机模型等多种方法，由Corey Bradshaw教授及其团队主导完成。1
A research team from Flinders University and affiliated institutions has published findings in Nature Human Behaviour showing that Australia's pre-colonial Indigenous population was approximately 2.22 million people—substantially higher than previous estimates of 250,000 to 1 million 1. The study estimates that between 1788 and 1861, the Indigenous population declined by 93%, with approximately 2.06 million excess deaths occurring during this 73-year period, averaging about 28,200 deaths per year 1.
The research, led by Professor Corey Bradshaw and his team, employed a comprehensive methodology combining ethnographic observations, archaeological findings, genetic reconstruction, and computational modeling to arrive at these estimates 1. Pre-colonial population density was approximately 0.29 people per square kilometer 1. By 1861, the Indigenous population had fallen to just 7% of its pre-colonial level 1. According to the 2021 Australian Census, the current Indigenous population stands at roughly 37% of the 1788 estimated population 1. If current growth trends continue, researchers predict the Indigenous population may not recover to pre-colonial levels until 2047 1.
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