全球约150万公里的海底通信光缆构成了国际电信的关键基础设施，607条在役系统承载着全球绝大部分跨境数据流量1。然而这一关键网络正面临多重风险威胁。捕鱼活动和锚泊占据光缆故障的约86%，地质事件占7%1，其中近50%的故障发生在领海内，仅2%发生在公海1。马祖岛海底光缆在2018至2022年间遭切断27次，2023至2025年又发生4次重大中断；波罗的海自2023年以来共发生11次海底系统中断1。
修复能力的严重不足加剧了这一困境。全球仅有约60艘光缆修复船，其中三分之二将在2040年前报废，而同期全球光缆里程预计增长48%1。单次光缆修复成本通常为50万至100万美元1，2023年最长修复耗时947天，主要原因是权限批准延迟1。业界估计修复船队更新需投资30亿美元，需增建15艘新船和5艘追加船只1。与此同时，2030年前全球约四分之一现有光缆将被淘汰，涉及845000公里光纤1。
云计算巨头在基础设施中的主导地位也引发关切。谷歌预计到2028年将拥有太平洋、大西洋、印度洋最大光缆集群，在印太地区控制超过50%的光缆网络1。分析指出，国际协调和系统性投资对保障全球通信基础设施的可靠性至关重要。
The world's undersea telecommunications network, spanning approximately 1.5 million kilometers across 607 active systems, forms the backbone of global connectivity but remains dangerously vulnerable to disruption 1. This critical infrastructure faces mounting threats from fishing activities, ship anchors, natural disasters, and geopolitical risks, compounded by inadequate repair capacity and regulatory delays that threaten the reliability of international communications.
Damage to submarine cables occurs with alarming frequency. Between 2018 and 2022, cables near Matsu Island were severed 27 times, while the Baltic Sea experienced 11 system outages since 2023 and 4 major disruptions occurred between 2023 and 2025 1. Approximately 86 percent of cable faults result from fishing or anchoring activities, with geological events accounting for only 7 percent 1. Notably, nearly 50 percent of cable failures occur within territorial waters, while only 2 percent happen in international waters 1. Repair costs typically range from $500,000 to $1 million per incident, yet the longest repair duration on record in 2023 stretched to 947 days, primarily due to delays in obtaining regulatory approval 1.
The repair infrastructure faces a looming crisis. Currently, approximately 60 cable repair vessels exist globally, but two-thirds are projected to be decommissioned before 2040 while cable network length is expected to grow 48 percent during the same period 1. Modernizing the repair fleet requires $3 billion in investment and the addition of 15 new vessels plus 5 supplementary ships 1. Meanwhile, by 2030, roughly one-quarter of existing cables will reach obsolescence, affecting approximately 845,000 kilometers of fiber optic cable 1. Adding to infrastructure concentration risks, Google is expected to control the largest cable clusters across the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans by 2028, commanding over 50 percent of subsea network capacity in the Indo-Pacific region 1.
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