英国安全局MI5发布年度威胁评估，指出该国面临的国家级威胁已超过冷战时期水平23。MI5主任肯·麦卡勒姆在演讲中警告，伊朗正在改变战术，将目标转向更难以防守的对象1，针对英国关键军事设施的恐怖袭击阴谋"高度可能"由伊朗协调1。过去十年间，外国对手威胁增加了四倍3。俄罗斯被称为"头号侵略者"3，而伊朗已与俄罗斯并列成为在英国策划暴力致命行动的国家2。过去一年中，英国发生了50起与伊朗相关活动的逮捕3，俄罗斯自乌克兰全面入侵以来已有近1000名间谍被驱逐3。
极右翼反移民威胁同步上升，加剧了英国的安全压力2。人工智能技术进一步恶化了这一局势——恐怖分子已开始利用AI改进侦察和攻击方法，包括使用AI驱动的无人机3。麦卡勒姆表示，AI甚至可能被用于开发生物武器，虽然这一威胁"尚未实现"但风险真实存在3。为应对这一挑战，MI5成立了AI威胁评估中心3。英国4月恐怖主义威胁等级升至严重级别，为5年来首次3。麦卡勒姆强调，"没有物理定律规定国家威胁上升必然伴随恐怖威胁下降"2，在这个新时代，人民和国家需要提高韧性2。
Britain's security landscape has fundamentally shifted, with the head of MI5 alerting the nation to unprecedented dual dangers spanning hostile state actors and emerging technologies. Ken McCallum, the director of the UK's Security Service, cautioned that Iran is pivoting toward "harder targets," including critical military installations, while both Iran and Russia now rank as primary threats coordinating violent operations on British soil 13. The number of national security threats MI5 confronts has surpassed Cold War levels, marking what officials describe as entry into a new era of national security challenges 13.
McCallum emphasized that rising state-level threats and terrorist dangers are not mutually exclusive phenomena 2. Over the past decade, foreign adversary threats have increased fourfold 3, with approximately 1,000 Russian spies expelled since Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine 3. In the past year alone, 50 arrests connected to Iranian activity have occurred 3. Separately, far-right anti-immigration extremism continues to surge as a domestic threat vector 2. Britain's terrorism threat level was elevated to "severe" in April, marking the first such escalation in five years 3.
Compounding these challenges, artificial intelligence has emerged as a force multiplier for hostile actors. MI5 has established a dedicated center to assess AI-related threats, with McCallum warning that terrorists have already begun deploying AI to enhance reconnaissance and attack methodologies, including AI-powered drones 3. While the prospect of AI being weaponized for biological weapons development remains unrealized, officials view the risk as tangible 3. As McCallum stated, "There is no law of physics dictating that rising state threats will be accompanied by diminishing terrorist threats" 2, underscoring the expectation that Britain must build resilience against this complex, multifaceted threat environment 2.
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