中国国家气候中心已监测确认赤道中东太平洋正式形成超强圣婴现象1。国家气候中心首席预报员趋俊虎表示，监测区海温指数3个月滑动平均值已连续5个月超过0.5度，其中7至9月滑动平均值超过2.5度1。广东省气候中心决策服务首席王娟懷指出，从9月开始超强圣婴现象正式形成，预计在今年秋末冬初达到峰值，并将持续到明年春季1。
在这一现象影响下，广东冬季气候将呈现复杂特征1。王娟懷表示，广东容易出现暖冬，但同时会伴随强降水事件、寒潮或强冷空气，也可能再现2016年时"下霰"的情况1。广州市气象局预计，2026年冬季至2027年春季，广州及岭南地区降雨量将比近30年同期偏多2至3成，暴雨频发，冬季极端最低气温预计将跌至1.5度至4.5度1。上一次出现超强圣婴现象为2014至2016年间，广州城区曾于2016年1月24日出现大范围降冰霰1。
China's National Climate Center has officially confirmed the formation of a super El Niño phenomenon in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, with peak intensity expected in the late autumn and early winter of this year.1 According to Chief Forecaster Qu Junhu of the center, the three-month moving average of sea surface temperature indices in the monitoring region has exceeded 0.5 degrees Celsius for five consecutive months, with readings surpassing 2.5 degrees Celsius from July to September.1
The extreme weather system is expected to significantly impact Guangdong Province. Wang Juanhuai, Chief of Decision Support Services at the Guangdong Climate Center, indicated that the super El Niño formally took shape beginning in September and is projected to persist through spring of next year.1 Under the influence of this phenomenon, Guangdong is likely to experience a warm winter accompanied by extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall, cold waves, and strong cold air masses.1 The region may also see ice pellets similar to those that occurred in 2016.1
The Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau forecasts that extreme minimum temperatures in Guangzhou and the Lingnan region during winter 2026 (December to February) and spring 2027 (March to May) could drop to between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Celsius, with rainfall expected to be 20 to 30 percent above the 30-year average and frequent torrential downpours.1 Guangzhou's urban area experienced widespread ice pellets on January 24, 2016, during the previous super El Niño event of 2014 to 2016.1
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