澳大利亚气象局报告显示，正在发展中的超级厄尔尼诺现象已加强至前所未有的水平1。太平洋中部平均周海面相对海洋厄尔尼诺指数已超过2015年12月创造的纪录水平1，而2023年9月更是突破了太平洋中东部日均海面温度的历史记录1。值得注意的是，热带太平洋部分地区的海温首次超过30℃1。伯克利地球气候科学家泽克·豪斯法瑟表示，"我们目前正在见证一场在历史记录中前所未有的厄尔尼诺事件"1。
这一极端气候现象预计将在12月达到峰值1。世界气象组织报告称，干旱和洪水相关的破坏已在多个地区出现，东非和亚太地区粮食安全问题日益突出1。世界气象组织预计2026年将成为有记录以来最暖的年份之一，高温可能持续到2027年1。
A powerful El Niño phenomenon is intensifying to levels never before recorded, with the Pacific Ocean's central regions experiencing unprecedented warming. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reported that the average weekly sea surface relative oceanic Niño index in the central Pacific has exceeded the record levels set in December 2015 during the previous strong El Niño event.1 In September 2023, the central and eastern Pacific recorded daily average sea surface temperatures that surpassed the previous 2015 record, while tropical Pacific waters in some areas reached over 30 degrees Celsius for the first time.1
Dr. Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, characterized the current conditions as "an El Niño event that is unprecedented in the historical record."1 The event is expected to reach its peak intensity in December, with the World Meteorological Organization projecting that 2026 could become one of the warmest years on record, with elevated temperatures potentially persisting into 2027.1
The phenomenon is already triggering widespread climate disruptions across the globe. Drought and flood-related damage has emerged in multiple regions, with the World Meteorological Organization noting that food security concerns are intensifying in East Africa and the Asia-Pacific region.1
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