科研人员通过气候模型研究发现，即使全球实现净零碳排放目标，极端厄尔尼诺事件仍将成为未来的气候威胁12。研究采用了两种气候情景进行对比：一种假设碳排放持续上升，另一种假设达成净零排放目标12。结果表明，由于海洋升温的滞后性，太平洋东部可能在数百年内长期维持厄尔尼诺样态12。虽然全球气温在实现净零排放后不久会停止上升，但海洋温度将继续上升数百年2。
历史记录显示极端厄尔尼诺事件的破坏力。1982年的厄尔尼诺导致秘鲁河流流量增加1000倍，澳大利亚则遭遇干旱和火灾造成75人丧生12。1998年的强厄尔尼诺在秘鲁塞丘拉沙漠形成了深达3米的新湖泊，随后引发蚊子数量激增和广泛疟疾疫情2。2016年强厄尔尼诺导致大堡礁三分之二以上的珊瑚发生白化12。当前在热带太平洋形成的厄尔尼诺预期将成为有记录以来最强的之一，其影响预计将持续到2027年12。
研究表明，更早达成碳中和目标可以限制极端厄尔尼诺的发生频率2，但延迟实现净零目标将加剧这类极端事件的频次，给未来几代人带来更大的气候风险和经济成本1。
Research using climate models has revealed a troubling reality: even if the world achieves net zero carbon emissions, extreme El Niño events will continue to strike frequently for centuries to come.12 The study examined two climate scenarios—one in which emissions continue rising and another in which net zero targets are met—and found that the tropical Pacific will likely maintain El Niño-like conditions over prolonged periods.12
The current El Niño forming in the tropical Pacific is expected to rank among the strongest on record.12 Historical precedents illustrate the devastating impacts of extreme El Niño events: in 1982, an El Niño increased river flows in Peru by 1,000 times and triggered severe drought and fires in Australia that claimed 75 lives.12 A 1998 El Niño created new lakes up to 3 meters deep in Peru's Sechura Desert, sparking record mosquito populations and widespread malaria outbreaks.2 The 2016 El Niño caused coral bleaching across more than two-thirds of the Great Barrier Reef.12
The research demonstrates that reaching net zero sooner could limit the frequency of extreme El Niño events compared to continued fossil fuel dependence.2 However, scientists caution that achieving net zero targets will not solve the problem entirely. While global temperatures will stabilize shortly after net zero is reached, ocean temperatures will continue rising for several hundred years, prolonging El Niño-like conditions in the Pacific.12 This delayed ocean warming creates a persistent climate hazard that future generations will face.
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