国际货币基金组织支持英国财政大臣继续推进财政修复

国际货币基金组织首席经济学家西尔瓦娜·滕雷罗表示，英国财政大臣约翰·希利应坚持推进英国公共财政修复计划。1 滕雷罗在IMF年度会议期间做出这一表态，同时IMF发布了针对英国经济的新一轮预测。

根据IMF最新经济展望，英国今年经济增长预测已上调至1.3%，较7月预测上升0.3个百分点。1 然而，IMF预测2027年增长将放缓至1.2%，原因包括能源价格上升和利率上升的压力。1 在通胀前景方面，IMF预期英国今年平均通胀率为3.3%，英国核心通胀预计到明年年底才能恢复到2%目标。1 远期来看，IMF预测2027年通胀率为2.8%。1

希利将于10月28日提交首份预算案，这一时机正值英国经济面临多重挑战之际。1 英格兰银行货币政策委员会广泛预期在11月加息，同时国际财政研究所警告预算案存在£35亿的未来支出压力。1

The International Monetary Fund's chief economist Silvana Tenreiro has called on British Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey to maintain his commitment to repairing the nation's public finances.1 The IMF has revised its economic growth forecast for the UK upward to 1.3 percent for this year, representing an increase of 0.3 percentage points from its July projection.1 However, the organization has simultaneously downgraded its 2027 growth outlook to 1.2 percent from a previous estimate of 1.3 percent, citing pressures from rising energy prices and elevated interest rates.1

Healey is scheduled to present his first budget on October 28, a task complicated by multiple economic headwinds.1 The UK's core inflation is not expected to return to the 2 percent target until the end of next year,1 while average inflation for this year is projected to reach 3.3 percent, moderating to 2.8 percent by 2027.1 The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is broadly expected to raise interest rates in November.1 Additional fiscal pressures loom, with the Institute for Fiscal Studies warning that the budget faces approximately £35 billion in future spending pressures.1