美国将于11月3日举行中期选举，众议院和参议院的控制权将迎来争夺1。特朗普的支持率已跌至约37%，低于其上一任期同期的43%水平1，这为民主党收复失地创造了机会。然而，要实现国会两院多数控制，民主党面临艰巨挑战。在众议院方面，共和党目前掌控218个席位，恰好构成多数1；民主党需在21个摇摆区中赢得至少5个，其中15个由共和党控制1。在参议院，共和党握有53个席位1，民主党需要获得51席才能实现控制1，这要求他们在7个摇摆席位中拿下4个共和党控制的州，同时面临在特朗普2024年获胜幅度达两位数的阿拉斯加、爱荷华和俄亥俄州翻盘的压力1。
经济因素和资金差距在这场竞争中起着关键作用。汽油价格从2月的每加仑低于2.30美元上升至伊朗战争后的4美元1，而伊朗战争在8月的民调反对率达63%1。资金方面的差距令民主党处于不利位置，8月底共和党全委会及盟友的现金储备超过6亿美元，而民主党仅为不足4亿美元1；特朗普的MAGA Inc集团另掌握超过4亿美元资金1。进入9月，政治广告支出超过10亿美元，共和党的支出比民主党高出2亿美元1。
The United States will hold midterm elections on November 3rd to determine control of the House of Representatives and Senate 1. President Trump's approval rating has declined to approximately 37%, falling below the historical level of 43% recorded at the same point in his previous term, creating an opening for Democrats to recapture both chambers of Congress 1.
Democrats face a complex path to victory despite the headwinds facing Republicans 1. In the House, where Republicans currently hold 218 seats—just a bare majority—Democrats must flip at least 5 of the 21 swing districts to gain control; 15 of these competitive seats are held by Republicans and 6 by Democrats 1. In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats while Democrats would need to secure 51 seats for control, requiring them to win 4 of the 7 swing seats, of which 6 are currently Republican-held 1. This task is complicated by the fact that Democrats must overcome Trump's two-digit margins of victory in Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio from 2024 1.
Economic conditions have created headwinds for the party in power, with gasoline prices surging from below $2.30 per gallon in February to $4 following tensions with Iran, an issue on which 63% of voters expressed opposition in August polling 1. The financial landscape also favors Republicans: by late August, the Republican National Committee and allied groups had amassed over $600 million in cash reserves compared to less than $400 million for Democrats, while Trump's MAGA Inc. group alone held over $400 million 1. By September, Republicans had outspent Democrats by $200 million in political advertising, with overall spending exceeding $1 billion 1.
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