世界气象组织预计10月至12月，尼诺3.4区域季节平均海表温度将比平常高出3.7℃，于12月前后达到峰值1。厄尔尼诺现象已经形成并正在快速增强，持续到2027年2月的可能性接近100%1。这一现象将影响我国降雨分布，导致部分地区雨水增多、部分地区干旱，并加剧降雨的突发性1。
为应对秋冬季可能出现的异常天气，相关部门和专家提出多项防范建议1。中国水利水电科学研究院减灾中心总工程师严登华强调"防洪和抗旱两手都要抓"1，水利部减灾中心空天智能所研究室主任秦天玲则提醒"不能只看全省、全市面上的雨量"1。具体预防措施包括：社区要及时清理秋冬季落叶，防止堵塞雨水口和排水通道；住在山沟、河道边的群众应提前了解避险路线和安置地点1。专家同时警惕秋冬异常降雨、山洪灾害和城市积水风险1。
The World Meteorological Organization forecasts that El Niño will continue strengthening from October through December this year, with sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region rising 3.7°C above normal levels and reaching peak intensity around December.1 The El Niño phenomenon has already formed and is intensifying rapidly, with a near 100% probability of persisting until February 2027.1
This intensification poses significant challenges to rainfall distribution across China. El Niño will increase precipitation in some regions while causing drought in others, while simultaneously amplifying the abruptness and unpredictability of rainfall events.1 Experts warn that both northern and southern China must simultaneously prepare for both flood control and drought resistance.1 Yan Denghua, chief engineer of the disaster mitigation center at the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydroelectric Power, stressed that "both flood prevention and drought control must be addressed."1 Meanwhile, Qin Tianling, director of the research office at the Water Resources Ministry's Disaster Mitigation Center, cautioned against relying solely on provincial or municipal average rainfall data.1
Specific risks for the coming season include abnormal autumn and winter rainfall patterns, mountain flooding, and urban waterlogging.1 Communities should proactively clear fallen leaves from drainage outlets and channels to prevent blockages.1 Residents living in mountain valleys or near riverbanks are advised to familiarize themselves with evacuation routes and designated shelter locations in advance.1
评论
还没有评论，欢迎留下第一条。