科技思想家Kevin Kelly在2016年出版的著作《The Inevitable》中对人工智能的发展进行了多项预测。1
Kelly曾预言"到2026年，Google的主要产品将不再是搜索，而是AI"。1他的论证基于Google每天进行30亿次查询来训练其深度学习AI系统的事实。1
在AI市场的产业格局方面，Kelly预测该领域将由"2-3家大型通用云基础商业AI公司"主导。1同时，他认为"大部分AI将是特定用途的软件大脑"，指出99%的商业AI应用将是针对特定领域的专用程序。1
2017年Google发表了《Attention Is All You Need》论文，介绍了transformer架构。1Kelly还强调，AI应该像互联网公共资源一样免费提供，从而推动商业和科学领域的发展。1
Kevin Kelly, in his 2016 book The Inevitable, made several bold forecasts about the trajectory of artificial intelligence that merit reassessment a decade on.1 Among his most striking claims was the prediction that "by 2026, Google's main product will not be search but AI."1 To support this vision, Kelly noted that Google processes approximately 3 billion queries daily, a data stream that feeds the training of its deep learning systems.1
Beyond Google's strategic shift, Kelly anticipated a concentrated market structure, predicting that an "oligarchy of two or three large, general-purpose cloud-based commercial intelligences" would come to dominate the AI landscape.1 He further argued that despite this consolidation at the top, "the bulk of AI will be special purpose software brains," with 99 percent of commercial AI applications taking the form of specialized, domain-specific programs rather than general-purpose systems.1 Notably, Kelly advocated that AI should function as a free public resource, similar to the internet, to catalyze advances in both commerce and scientific research.1 A significant technical milestone supporting this trajectory came in 2017 when Google published the "Attention Is All You Need" paper, introducing the transformer architecture that would become foundational to modern AI development.1
评论
还没有评论，欢迎留下第一条。