独立金融研究机构New Constructs近日发布报告，对AI公司Anthropic的计划中IPO提出尖锐批评1。该机构将Anthropic的合理估值定为1500亿美元，而市场预期其纳斯达克IPO估值可能达到2万亿美元1。New Constructs创始人兼CEO David Trainer称这是"2026年最荒谬的IPO"1，并指出Anthropic需要录得英伟达两倍（190亿美元）的利润才能支撑2万亿美元的估值1。
根据泄露的招股书数据，Anthropic 2025年实现收入46亿美元，但同期净亏损达42亿美元1。虽然截至7月底的年化收益运行率达650亿美元，同比增长七倍1，但New Constructs仍认为该公司在开源模型竞争下缺乏可行的商业模式1。《纽约时报》曾在9月报道称Anthropic有望在2026年底前实现1000亿美元年化收入1。
Trainer在投资预测领域有过成功案例，曾准确预测WeWork IPO失败，但他对DoorDash IPO的预测则存在失误1。
Independent financial research firm New Constructs has released a critical report on AI company Anthropic's anticipated initial public offering, asserting that the company's valuation is severely inflated.1 The research firm values Anthropic at approximately $150 billion, yet market expectations suggest the company could command a valuation as high as $2 trillion.1 According to New Constructs, Anthropic would need to generate profits double those of Nvidia to justify a $2 trillion valuation.1
The critique is grounded in Anthropic's financial realities disclosed through leaked prospectus materials.1 The company reported 2025 revenues of $4.6 billion against a net loss of $4.2 billion, raising questions about its path to profitability.1 Although Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate reached $65 billion as of late July, representing sevenfold year-over-year growth, New Constructs contends that the company lacks a viable business model in the face of open-source model competition.1 Meanwhile, the New York Times reported in September that Anthropic could achieve $100 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2026.1
New Constructs founder and CEO David Trainer has a mixed track record on IPO predictions.1 While he successfully forecast WeWork's IPO failure, his analysis of DoorDash's IPO proved inaccurate.1
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