英国财政研究所警告：预算若无支出计划将沦为"虚构之作"

英国财政研究所日前向财政大臣约翰·希利发出警告，称除非制定明确计划应对350亿英镑的支出压力，否则10月28日的预算将成为"虚构之作"1。该智库指出，中东战争引发债券市场动荡和更高的借贷成本1，加上通胀影响，英国政府面临严峻的财政挑战。

在这一背景下，英国政府需要在今十年末前要么增加资金支持现有支出计划，要么实施深层实际削减1。预计债务利息成本在2029-30年将增加100亿英镑1，而现有的240亿英镑缓冲可能被削减约一半1。同时，国防支出承诺增加至国内生产总值的3%（2030年前）1，这进一步加剧了财政压力。

英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利要求财政政策"必须可信且被金融市场认可"1。财政研究所主任海伦·米勒表示："简单地列入他无意兑现的隐性削减，将使预算沦为虚构之作"1。该智库敦促希利避免延迟决策至明年支出评审，以维护财政计划的可信度1。

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has cautioned Chancellor John Hunt that the October 28 budget risks becoming a "work of fiction" unless he presents a clear strategy to manage £35 billion in spending pressures 1. The think tank's director Helen Miller stated that "simply pencilling in implicit cuts that he has no intention of delivering would make the budget a work of fiction" 1.

The UK faces mounting fiscal challenges driven by multiple factors. Middle East conflict has triggered significant government bond market volatility and higher borrowing costs, while inflation pressures continue to mount 1. The Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has stressed that fiscal policy "must be credible and be seen as credible by financial markets" 1. According to the IFS, the government must find approximately £35 billion through either increased tax revenue or welfare cuts to compensate for inflation impacts and rising defence spending commitments 1. The £24 billion fiscal buffer is expected to be reduced by roughly half, and debt interest costs alone are projected to increase by £10 billion in 2029-30 1. These pressures stem partly from the government's commitment to raise defence spending to 3 percent of GDP by 2030 1.

The IFS has urged Hunt to make these difficult fiscal decisions now rather than delaying them until next year's spending review, warning that postponement would undermine confidence in the government's financial planning 1.