澳大利亚多项民调显示政治格局出现新变化。根据Newspoll民调(2024年10月5-8日),工党支持率达到29%,上升2个百分点,而单边全国党则下跌2个百分点至28%1。Resolve民调(2024年10月6-10日)的结果相似,工党获得29%的初选票支持率(上升1个百分点),单边全国党下降2个百分点至25%1。两项民调均显示绿党支持率有所上升1。
在不同民调间存在分歧的是单边全国党的支持度。YouGov民调(2024年9月29日至10月6日)显示单边全国党支持率为28%,而工党则为25%1。与此同时,绿党在各项民调中均有表现,其中维州州选民调显示绿党支持率创下纪录高位16%1。
当前政府方面,总理阿尔巴内塞在Newspoll中的净赞成度为负24,其中不满意度为60%,满意度为36%1。保琳·汉森在过去两次Newspoll中下降8个百分点1。关于经济议题,财政部长吉姆·查默斯声称利率上升主要源于中东冲突,但63%的受访者不同意这一观点1。
Recent polling surveys show shifting support among Australia's major political parties, with Labor and the Greens recording gains while One Nation's standing declines. The Newspoll conducted from October 5-8, 2024, among 1,241 respondents, recorded Labor at 29 percent of primary vote support, up two percentage points, while One Nation fell to 28 percent, down two points.1 The Coalition registered 20 percent, up one point, and the Greens reached 14 percent, also up one point.1 The Resolve poll, conducted October 6-10, 2024, with 2,250 participants, similarly showed Labor at 29 percent, up one point, though One Nation was lower at 25 percent, down two points.1 In that survey, the Coalition recorded 23 percent, down one point, and the Greens secured 12 percent, up one point.1
A YouGov poll spanning September 29 to October 6, 2024, involving 1,505 respondents, presented different results, showing One Nation at 28 percent, up one point, while Labor stood at 25 percent, down one point, with the Coalition unchanged at 21 percent and the Greens at 15 percent.1
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's net approval rating in Newspoll stood at minus 24, with 60 percent dissatisfied and 36 percent satisfied.1 One Nation leader Pauline Hanson declined eight percentage points across two consecutive Newspoll surveys.1
In state politics, a Redbridge poll for the Victorian state election scheduled for November 28, 2024, showed the Coalition leading Labor 30 to 24 percent, with a two-party preferred result of 56-44 in the Coalition's favor.1
Regarding Treasurer Jim Chalmers's claim that rising interest rates were primarily attributable to Middle Eastern conflict, 63 percent of survey respondents disagreed.1
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