澳大利亚政界正酝酿一项前所未有的政策转向。一国党领袖保罗琳·汉森承诺若当选将在三年内推行净海外移民负增长政策,这在澳洲历史上尚属首次有意为之1。该政党的经济团队声称,通过削减76.6万临时移民,可将租赁通胀总体降低6.5%,使平均租户三年后每周节省54澳元1。与此同时,联盟党领导人安格斯·泰勒也承诺将净海外移民削减至每年10万人,称这将是澳洲历史上最大幅度的移民削减1。相比之下,现任政府的移民目标为每年22.5万人1。
然而,经济学家对这些激进措施提出了严重警告。经济学家马克·卡利表示:"如果净海外移民三年或更长时间为负,我看不出这意味着除了长期经济衰退以外的任何东西"1。彼得·图利普则警告称"政府收入将大幅下降,经济上我们将更加贫困"1。数据显示,过去15年间,临时移民在澳大利亚人口中的比例已从2011年的2.9%增长至6.6%(不含新西兰人和游客)1。澳大利亚国立大学移民中心主任艾伦·盖姆伦建议需要"用手术刀而非钝器"来改革移民系统1。
Australian political parties are pushing for a dramatic reversal of net overseas migration to negative levels, a move never deliberately pursued in the nation's history.1 One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has pledged to implement such a policy within three years if elected, claiming it could reduce rental inflation by 6.5 percent.1 The Coalition's leader Angus Taylor has committed to cutting net overseas migration to 100,000 annually, describing it as Australia's largest migration reduction in history.1 By contrast, the current government targets 225,000 net overseas migrants per year, down from a peak of 300,000.1
The proposed cuts would represent a dramatic contraction from recent trends. Over the past 15 years, temporary migrants have grown from 2.9 percent of the population in 2011 to 6.6 percent, excluding New Zealand citizens and tourists.1 One Nation's economic team argues that removing 766,000 temporary migrants would collectively reduce rental inflation by 6.5 percent, potentially saving average tenants 54 Australian dollars per week after three years.1
However, economists have warned of severe consequences from such a reversal. Mark Carley stated: "If net overseas migration is negative for three years or longer, I can't see what that means other than a prolonged economic recession."1 Peter Tulip cautioned that "government revenue will fall significantly and economically we will be poorer."1 Alan Gamlen, director of the Australian National University's migration centre, argued that the system requires "a scalpel rather than a sledgehammer" to reform migration policy properly.1
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