国家气候中心10月9日宣布，2026年9月已正式形成一次超强厄尔尼诺事件，将成为有系统性监测以来最强的厄尔尼诺事件 1。该事件为东部型厄尔尼诺，预计秋末冬初达到峰值 1。此前共出现过3次超强厄尔尼诺事件，分别发生于1982至1983年、1997至1998年和2014至2016年 1。
受该事件影响，预计今年秋季我国中东部大部降水偏多，江南大部和西南地区东部局部偏多五至八成 1。冬季期间，我国气温总体偏高，寒潮频次略偏多 1。气象部门预计，这一强厄尔尼诺事件还将影响到2027年春夏季，届时夏季高温热浪强度更强、范围更广，极端天气气候事件增多 1。
China's National Climate Center announced on October 9 that a super-strong El Niño event has officially developed as of September 2026, marking the most powerful El Niño phenomenon since systematic monitoring began 1. The eastern-type El Niño is expected to peak in late autumn and early winter, bringing pronounced temperature fluctuations and increased precipitation across China 1.
This super-strong El Niño joins only three predecessors in the instrumental record: events that occurred in 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2014–2016 1. According to the center's forecasts, autumn precipitation from October through November is projected to be above normal across much of central and eastern China, with parts of the Yangtze River region and eastern Southwest China experiencing increases of 50 to 80 percent above typical levels 1. Winter temperatures, spanning December 2026 through February 2027, are anticipated to run above average nationwide, though cold air outbreaks are expected to occur slightly more frequently than usual 1. Looking ahead, spring and summer of 2027 will likely see heat waves of greater intensity and broader geographic extent, accompanied by a rise in extreme weather and climate events 1.
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