国家气候中心确认，自2026年5月以来赤道中东太平洋进入厄尔尼诺状态，于2026年9月正式形成一次超强厄尔尼诺事件，类型为东部型1。根据监测数据，Niño3.4区海温指数连续五个月超过0.5℃1，其中7—9月滑动平均值超过2.5℃，达到超强事件标准1。9月该区海温指数达到2.94℃，较8月上升0.35℃，同期东太平洋暖水中心偏高3.0℃以上1。
国家气候中心预计此次厄尔尼诺事件将在秋末冬初达到峰值，成为有系统性监测以来最强的厄尔尼诺事件1。
The National Climate Center has officially confirmed the formation of an exceptionally strong El Niño event in September 2026, marking what is projected to be the most powerful El Niño occurrence in the history of systematic monitoring 1. The equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean entered an El Niño state beginning in May 2026, with the phenomenon intensifying to super-strong classification by September 1. This event is categorized as the eastern type of El Niño 1.
The confirmation is based on multiple oceanographic indicators meeting established thresholds for extreme events 1. The Niño3.4 sea surface temperature index remained above 0.5°C for five consecutive months, while the three-month moving average for July through September exceeded 2.5°C, satisfying the criteria for a super-strong event 1. In September specifically, the Niño3.4 index reached 2.94°C, representing a 0.35°C increase from August 1. Additionally, the warm water center in the eastern Pacific was recorded as more than 3.0°C above normal levels in September 1. Scientists anticipate this El Niño event will reach its peak intensity in the late autumn and early winter period 1.
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