英国保守党党首凯米·巴德诺克在党代会政策文件《正确之路》中声称实现净零排放的成本为957亿英镑,但这一数字因电子表格重复计算错误而被高估1。实际成本仅为478亿英镑,较声称数字高估近500亿英镑1。
错误源于气候变化委员会电子表格中的重复统计问题,该表格包含了总计行,导致数据被计算两次1。保守党在未经验证的情况下直接使用了这一数据1。气候变化委员会发言人随后表示:"我们不认可这个数字"1。
气候变化委员会的最新分析显示,到2050年实现净零排放的成本约为110亿英镑,即每年约40亿英镑,仅占英国国内生产总值的0.2%1。这一错误由Carbon Brief出版物发现并告知《卫报》1。
Britain's Conservative Party has significantly overstated the cost of achieving net zero emissions in a policy document presented at its conference. The party's manifesto, titled "The Right Path Forward" and presented by Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, asserts that reaching net zero will cost £957 billion, but this figure has been inflated by close to £500 billion through a duplication error in calculations, bringing the genuine expense to approximately £478 billion.1
The mistake appears to have originated in a spreadsheet produced by the Climate Change Committee that inadvertently included total rows in its calculations, resulting in double-counting.1 The Conservative Party's policy document utilized this flawed data without independent verification, and the Climate Change Committee has since distanced itself from the figure.1 A spokesperson for the Climate Change Committee stated: "We do not endorse this figure."1 The error was discovered by Carbon Brief and subsequently brought to the attention of the Guardian.1
In contrast, the Climate Change Committee's own latest analysis indicates that the cost of reaching net zero by 2050 amounts to approximately £11 billion annually, equivalent to roughly 0.2 percent of gross domestic product.1 Badenoch, who prefaced the policy document by noting "as an engineer, I am used to correctly diagnosing problems," relied on unverified data in making the party's core fiscal claims on climate policy.1
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