距离2026年美国中期选举投票日不足一个月，特朗普总统的政治前景日趋黯淡1。特朗普的支持率已跌至32%的历史低位，这是自1952年杜鲁门以来的最低水平1。在全国范围内，特朗普在39个州的民调中处于落后态势，甚至包括共和党传统堡垒德州和佛罗里达州1。
民主党因此在国会竞争中获得显著优势。民调显示民主党在通用选票上领先两位数，且民主党选民的投票积极性明显高于共和党选民1。库克政治报告创始人查理·库克预计民主党将赢得至少5至15个众议院席位，足以夺回众议院的控制权1。在参议院方面，目前共和党保有53比47的优势，民主党仅需净增至少4个席位即可夺得控制权1。民主党竞选领导人已将众议院胜利目标定在240个席位，并已将竞争名单扩大至6个2024年被共和党赢得超16个百分点的席位1。此外，美国最受欢迎的政治人物奥巴马将继续担任"压阵者"角色，为民主党参议院候选人竞选1。特朗普面临的困难局面与2006年布什政府遭遇的中期选举困境相似，他需要在德州、爱荷华州、阿拉斯加州、俄亥俄州等至少5个他在2024年赢得两位数优势的州重新竞争1。
With less than a month until the 2026 midterm elections, President Trump's approval rating has collapsed to a historic low of 32%, the lowest for any president since Harry Truman in 1952.1 Trump trails in polls across 39 states, including traditional Republican strongholds like Texas and Florida, forcing him to defend seats he won by double-digit margins in 2024 in states such as Texas, Iowa, Alaska, and Ohio.1 Political analysts project significant losses for the Republican party, with Cook Political Report founder Charlie Cook predicting Democrats will gain at least 5 to 15 House seats and reclaim majority control of the chamber.1
The Democratic advantage extends across both chambers. Democrats need a net gain of just four Senate seats to seize control from Republicans' current 53-47 majority, while polling shows Democrats commanding a double-digit lead on the generic ballot with notably higher voter enthusiasm than Republicans.1 Democratic campaign leaders have set a victory target of 240 House seats, including six additional seats won by Republicans by margins exceeding 16 percentage points in 2024.1 Former President Obama, cited as the most popular political figure in America, will continue campaigning for Democratic Senate candidates to bolster their chances.1
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