联合国世界气象组织发出警告，厄尔尼诺现象将在12月达到峰值，预计成为1950年以来最强的厄尔尼诺事件之一1。该组织基于13个国际气象中心的共识预测，10月至12月中东太平洋海温异常将达到约3.7摄氏度1，远超2015-2016年前纪录的2.6摄氏度1。世界气象组织主任塞莱斯特·萨乌洛表示："海洋正在释放有史以来最温暖的热量"1。
厄尔尼诺现象的增强预计将对全球气候造成广泛影响。该机构预测近100%的可能性厄尔尼诺将持续到2027年2月1。上一次厄尔尼诺导致2023年成为次热年，2024年更是创历史新高，比工业化前平均气温高1.55摄氏度1。极端天气已经显现其威胁——中美洲因严重干旱已出现动物和农作物死亡1。预计此次厄尔尼诺将引发全球温度升高、降雨模式改变，增加干旱和洪涝风险1。
The United Nations World Meteorological Organization has warned that El Niño will continue to intensify before reaching its peak in December, potentially becoming one of the strongest El Niño events since 1950 1. The organization predicts that sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific will reach approximately 3.7 degrees Celsius between October and December, surpassing the previous record of 2.6 degrees Celsius recorded during the 2015-2016 event 1. This projection is based on a consensus from 13 international meteorological centers 1.
The forecast carries significant implications for global weather patterns. According to World Meteorological Organization Director Celeste Saulo, "the ocean is releasing the warmest heat ever recorded" 1. There is a near 100 percent probability that El Niño will persist until February 2027 1. The intensified warming is expected to elevate global temperatures, alter precipitation patterns, and increase the risk of both droughts and flooding worldwide 1. Central America has already experienced animal and crop deaths due to drought conditions linked to the phenomenon 1.
The impact of El Niño extends beyond current conditions. The previous El Niño event contributed to 2023 becoming the second-warmest year on record, while 2024 has already broken temperature records, reaching 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial average temperatures 1.
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