澳大利亚维多利亚州定于11月28日举行州议会选举，距今7周1。现任工党政府正试图创造该州历史，争取第四个连任期，但民调显示结果仍难以预测1。约75%维多利亚人认为州政府方向错误1，工党初选支持率仅约25%1。工党总理卡罗尔于7月接替辞职的前总理艾伦1。
工党若想保持政权，最多可承受损失11个席位，仍保持45个多数席位1。反对派自由党领袖威尔逊需赢得16个席位才能组成多数政府1。民调师托尼·巴里认为"所有迹象表明威尔逊将成为下一任总理，但11个席位的缓冲意味着我们还不能完全排除工党"1。第三大政治力量一国党预测自身州范围支持率至少15%1，党魁哈金表示"我们会与任何人合作来赶走工党政府。工党是我们的敌人，联盟党是我们的竞争对手"1。
卡罗尔对政党前景表示，"维州历史上从未有过第四次选举胜利。我相信我们目前处于落后，但我们正在追赶"1。威尔逊则强调"修复预算是我们在这个州能做的最重要的事情"1。
Victoria will hold a state parliament election on November 28, just seven weeks away, with the outcome carrying significant implications beyond the state's borders.1 The incumbent Labor government is attempting to make electoral history by securing a fourth consecutive term, a feat never before achieved in Victoria's political history.1 However, polling indicates the result remains highly uncertain, with approximately 75% of Victorians believing the state government is heading in the wrong direction.1
Premier Danielle Carroll took over leadership in late July after the previous premier resigned, inheriting a government facing challenges from lingering pandemic issues and corruption investigations.1 Labor can afford to lose up to 11 seats and still retain a 45-seat majority, while the opposition Liberal Party leader needs to win 16 seats to form government.1 According to pollster Tony Barry, "all signs point to Wilson becoming the next premier, but the 11-seat buffer means we cannot completely rule out Labor."1 With Labor's primary support hovering around 25%, the race remains genuinely competitive.1
The opposition leader has stated that "fixing the budget is the most important thing we can do in this state,"1 while One Nation's representative declared, "we will work with anyone to remove the Labor government. Labor is our enemy, and the Coalition is our competition."1 Premier Carroll countered that "Victoria has never had a fourth election victory in its history. I believe we are currently behind, but we are catching up."1
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