壳牌公司预测第三季度炼油利润率将达到每桶42美元，较第二季度的24美元增长75%，创历史新高1。这一提升源于全球炼油产能受限，中东和俄罗斯战争导致关键炼油设施关闭，推高了精炼燃料价格1。柴油价格溢价首次突破每桶100美元，欧洲基准气价8月份也超过70.50欧元/兆瓦时1。
壳牌第二季度利润达近100亿英镑，为去年同期的两倍多，股价创历史新高至36.23英镑/股1。根据最新预期，壳牌天然气产量将达740,000-780,000桶油当量/天，高于此前570,000-630,000桶油当量/天的预测1。尽管布伦特原油均价第三季度为85.60美元/桶，低于第二季度的97.05美元/桶，但炼油业务的一体化结构使其从产能短缺中获利1。TotalEnergies首席执行官Patrick Pouyanné表示："我们通过一体化做得很好。一体化意味着你认为是负担的欧洲炼油厂突然成为了金矿。"1伊朗危机对壳牌关键天然气处理设施造成损害，使其战前日产能下降三分之一1。
Shell is projecting that its refineries will generate record profit margins in the third quarter, reaching approximately $42 per barrel—nearly double the $24 per barrel achieved in the second quarter 1. The dramatic increase reflects a substantial global shortage of refined fuels caused by the closure of refineries damaged in conflicts in the Middle East and Russia, which has driven up prices for finished petroleum products 1.
The energy company's second quarter results already demonstrated the profitability surge, with Shell reporting profits of nearly £10 billion, more than double the comparable period a year earlier 1. The company's stock price has climbed to a historic high of £36.23 per share 1. Contributing to these gains, diesel price premiums broke through $100 per barrel for the first time, while European benchmark gas prices exceeded €70.50 per megawatt-hour in August, roughly doubling in value 1. Shell has also revised upward its natural gas production forecast to between 740,000 and 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from a previous range of 570,000 to 630,000 1.
The refining windfall reflects broader industry tailwinds from regional supply disruptions. A critical Shell natural gas processing facility in Iran sustained damage, causing the company's pre-conflict daily production capacity of 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent to drop by approximately one-third 1. TotalEnergies Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanné characterized the moment as transformative for integrated energy firms, stating, "We are doing well through integration. Integration means what you thought was a burden—European refineries—suddenly became a goldmine" 1.
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