距新西兰11月7日大选还有一个月之际，最新民调显示政治格局仍存重大变数。根据Reid Research民调，左派阵营以2.1分的优势首次领先右派阵营，这是自6月中旬以来左派首度取得领先1。具体而言，Reid Research民调（9月24日至10月1日）显示工党支持率为30.8%，国家党25.9%，绿党14.8%，新西兰第一党10.6%，ACT党9.0%，Opportunity党5.5%，毛利党2.0%1。然而Verian民调（10月1日至5日）结果相反，显示国家党29%，工党28%，绿党16%，新西兰第一党10%，ACT党9%，Opportunity党7%，毛利党0.6%，右派阵营保持3分领先1。
非同盟政党Opportunity在两项民调中都超过5%进入议会门槛，成为可能改变政治天平的关键力量1。然而总理克里斯托弗·卢克森已就土地税政策问题明确排除了与Opportunity党合作的可能1。在领导人支持度方面，卢克森的净支持率为负23.7（53.3%不支持，29.6%支持），而工党领导人克里斯·希普金斯的净支持率为负3.6（38.7%不支持，35.1%支持）1。值得注意的是，40%的受调查者希望国家党重新考虑拒绝Opportunity党作为联盟伙伴的决定1。
With New Zealand's general election scheduled for November 7, recent polling data reveals a highly competitive political landscape one month before voters head to the polls.1 Two major surveys paint divergent pictures of voter sentiment, though both suggest the minor party Opportunity could play a decisive role in coalition negotiations.
According to Reid Research polling conducted from September 24 to October 1, the left-leaning bloc has achieved a narrow advantage over the right-leaning bloc for the first time since mid-June, leading by 2.1 percentage points.1 The same survey showed Labour at 30.8%, National at 25.9%, the Greens at 14.8%, NZ First at 10.6%, ACT at 9.0%, Opportunity at 5.5%, and Te Pāti Māori at 2.0%.1 By contrast, a Verian poll conducted October 1–5 indicated the right bloc maintains a 3-point lead, with National at 29%, Labour at 28%, the Greens at 16%, NZ First at 10%, ACT at 9%, Opportunity at 7%, and Te Pāti Māori at 0.6%.1
Opportunity's performance across both surveys—clearing the 5% parliamentary threshold in each—positions the non-aligned party as a potential coalition kingmaker.1 However, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has ruled out working with Opportunity over disagreements regarding land tax policy.1 Luxon's net favourability stands at –23.7, with 53.3% of respondents viewing him poorly and 29.6% viewing him well, compared to Labour leader Chris Hipkins' net favourability of –3.6 (38.7% poorly, 35.1% well).1 Despite the Prime Minister's position, 40% of respondents indicated they wanted National to reconsider rejecting Opportunity as a potential coalition partner.1
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