中华经济研究院研究员刘孟俊日前在政治大学的演讲中指出，从"十五五"规划到中共二十大，中国经济走向"苏联特色的日本化"的概率相对较高1。
刘孟俊表示，"十五五"期间（2026至2030年）中国经济转型的核心约束在于"安全优先"的制度安排，这导致资源集中、国家介入程度加深1。他指出的这一经济发展轨道被定义为安全导向持续压缩市场功能，形成"高控制、低效率"的长期停滞格局1。与此同时，中国经济面临房地产泡沫、僵尸企业和人口老化等多重问题，失业困境难以改善，消费驱动也面临困难1。
刘孟俊提出了三项关键观察指标来判断经济走向：投资缺口是否持续收敛、消费在GDP占比是否实现结构性提升，以及产能利用率是否持续回升1。他同时描绘了另一种可能的发展轨道——"中速成长的再平衡轨道"1。
A researcher from Taiwan's China Economic Research Institute has warned that China's economy faces a significant risk of entering a prolonged period of stagnation characterized by heavy state control and low efficiency.1 Liu Mengchun, a research fellow at the institute, delivered remarks at National Chengchi University on October 6, 2024, presenting two potential economic trajectories for China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period from 2026 to 2030.1
Liu outlined two contrasting scenarios for China's economic future.1 The first pathway, termed "rebalanced medium-speed growth track," would see the economy navigate its challenges through structural adjustments.1 The second scenario, which Liu assessed as having a significantly higher probability, represents what he calls "Soviet-style Japanese stagnation"—a framework where the government's prioritization of security would progressively constrict market mechanisms, resulting in a "high control, low efficiency" long-term stagnation pattern.1
Several structural headwinds contribute to this outlook.1 The core constraint on China's economic transformation during the 15th Five-Year Plan stems from institutional arrangements centered on "security first," leading to concentrated resources and deepened state intervention.1 The economy simultaneously grapples with real estate bubble pressures, zombie enterprises, and an aging population, while unemployment problems appear intractable and consumption-driven growth faces significant obstacles.1 Liu identified three key indicators to monitor: whether investment gaps continue to narrow, whether consumption's share of GDP experiences structural increases, and whether production capacity utilization rates sustain recovery.1
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