尽管印度经济增长率超过7%，但其股市表现与经济基本面严重脱节1。Sensex和Nifty指数连跌8周，创造了25年来最长的跌势纪录1。这波下跌浪潮对投资者造成了直接冲击，散户投资者今年财富缩水约15%1。
外资机构的大规模撤离加剧了市场压力1。过去两年，外资机构净撤出400亿美元，与过去十年几乎零净流入的趋势形成鲜明对比1。分析人士指出，多重因素共同驱动了这场下滑。中东地区冲突导致能源价格波动，原油价格已在每桶90-100美元区间内徘徊8个月之久，而印度进口90%以上的原油需求，其中近一半经由霍尔木兹海峡运入，增加了地缘政治风险1。
全球利率上升同样构成重压1。美国国债收益率超过5%，创下25年高位，削弱了新兴市场资产的相对吸引力1。与此同时，卢比贬值蚕食了以美元计的投资回报，Nifty指数过去十年以美元计仅提供6%的年化回报1。印度股市估值相对较高，而国内共同基金资产规模反而从2016年的约1250亿美元萎缩至今年约900亿美元1。此外，印度缺乏OpenAI、Anthropic或DeepSeek这样的全球人工智能巨头，在全球AI产业竞争中处于弱势1。
India's economy is expanding at a rate exceeding 7%, yet its stock market is experiencing a sharp downturn that defies this economic strength 1. The Sensex and Nifty indices have fallen for eight consecutive weeks, marking the longest losing streak in 25 years 1. Retail investors have seen their wealth diminish by approximately 15% this year 1, while foreign institutional investors have withdrawn a net $40 billion over the past two years 1.
Several interconnected factors are driving this market weakness. Crude oil prices have hovered between $90 and $100 per barrel for eight months, creating inflationary pressures; India relies on imports for over 90% of its oil needs, with nearly half of this supply passing through the Strait of Hormuz 1. Global interest rates have surged, with U.S. Treasury yields exceeding 5%—a 25-year high—making foreign investments more attractive and drawing capital away from emerging markets 1. The Indian rupee has depreciated, eroding returns for overseas investors 1. Additionally, Indian equities carry relatively elevated valuations while delivering limited returns, with the Nifty index providing only a 6% annualized return when measured in U.S. dollars over the past decade 1. A significant structural weakness is India's absence of globally competitive artificial intelligence companies comparable to OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepSeek, limiting the market's exposure to one of the world's most dynamic sectors 1.
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