宾夕法尼亚州的Thomas在破产前因体育博彩累积约75000美元债务，其中超过50000美元来自在线体育书，于2023年底申请破产1。为了戒赌，他进行了自我禁止1。然而两年后，他被预测市场平台Kalshi的广告所吸引，重新陷入赌博成瘾，在该平台上损失超过25000美元1。
Kalshi等预测市场平台缺乏州级赌博监管，也不参与州级自我排除数据库，这使得像Thomas这样有成瘾史的用户缺乏保护1。该平台允许用户使用信用卡下注，近期还向联邦监管机构申请允许引入杠杆产品供借贷交易1。在Thomas使用期间，他有时每天在手机上花费18小时进行下注1。问题赌博咨询师Abdullah Mahmood指出："快速到期的市场（几分钟或几小时内）与口袋里的老虎机没有区别"1。
过去一个月，Kalshi平台的赌注额近600亿美元，较去年9月的28亿美元增长超过2000%1。在美国，约有近2000万人显示赌博成瘾迹象，2024年美国人在体育博彩上花费1660亿美元1。加密货币相关市场是Kalshi上第二受欢迎的下注类型，占该平台体育博彩外总交易量的约80%1。
A 35-year-old man from Pennsylvania who had declared bankruptcy following compulsive sports betting found himself trapped in another cycle of problem gambling after discovering the prediction market platform Kalshi.1 Having accumulated approximately $75,000 in betting-related debt before his 2023 bankruptcy filing—with over $50,000 stemming from online sportsbooks—Thomas believed he had taken steps to address his addiction.1 Yet within two years, he lost more than $25,000 on Kalshi after being drawn to the platform's advertising.1
The case highlights critical gaps in the regulatory oversight of prediction markets. Unlike traditional sports betting sites that participate in state-level self-exclusion databases where problem gamblers can voluntarily ban themselves, Kalshi operates without state-level gambling regulation and does not participate in these protective mechanisms.1 The platform permits users to place bets using credit cards and has recently requested approval from federal regulators to introduce leveraged products for margin trading.1 During his time on Kalshi, Thomas sometimes spent up to 18 hours daily on his phone placing bets.1
Industry experts warn that the mechanics of these platforms pose particular risks to vulnerable users. Problem gambling consultant Abdullah Mahmood characterized rapidly expiring markets—which close within minutes or hours—as equivalent to "slot machines in your pocket."1 The concern intensifies as Kalshi's activity has surged dramatically: betting volume reached approximately $60 billion in the past month, representing growth of over 2,000 percent compared to $2.8 billion in September of the previous year.1 Cryptocurrency-related markets have become the second most popular betting category on the platform after sports betting, accounting for roughly 80 percent of non-sports betting volume.1 Against this backdrop, nearly 20 million Americans display signs of gambling addiction, and Americans spent $166 billion on sports betting in 2024.1
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