美国已完成其在伊拉克的军事任务，伊拉克总理阿里·阿尔·扎伊迪将10月1日定为"主权和独立日"1。美国的撤出在伊拉克库尔德地区制造了安全真空，伊朗及其支持的什叶派民兵正在趁机扩大影响力1。分析人士指出，伊朗的战略目标是将库尔德地区变成"没有任何回旋余地的机构"1。
伊朗通过支持库尔德地区内部两个对立权力中心——埃尔比勒和苏莱曼尼亚——来维持影响力1。库尔德民主党（KDP）与库尔德爱国联盟（PUK）之间的长期分裂成为库尔德地区最关键的内部脆弱性1。2023年巴格达与伊朗签署边境安全协议时，美军仍全面部署在该地区，而如今埃尔比勒在谈判中的杠杆实际上已不存在1。
分析人士指出，美国正在通过美元等全球金融网络保持对伊拉克的间接影响，这标志着其从"军事平衡者"向"强大的经济观察者"的战略转变1。库尔德地区要维持自治，需要弥合内部分歧，应对来自伊朗的遏制战略和巴格达的权力集中压力1。
The United States has completed its military mission in Iraq, with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi designating October 1 as a day commemorating "sovereignty and independence."1 This withdrawal creates a significant security vacuum that Iran and its supported Shia militias are moving to exploit, particularly in the Kurdish regions of northern Iraq.1
Analyst Hesam Dastpish characterizes Iran's strategic objective as transforming the Kurdish territories into an entity with "no room for maneuver."1 To maintain its influence, Iran is leveraging the longstanding political divisions within the Kurdish region by supporting two rival power centers—one based in Erbil and another in Sulaymaniya.1 The deep-rooted rivalry between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) represents the most critical internal vulnerability facing the Kurdish territories.1 When Baghdad and Tehran signed a border security agreement in 2023, American military forces remained fully deployed in the region; now, however, Erbil's negotiating leverage has effectively eroded.1
Analysts note that the United States is maintaining indirect influence over Iraq through global financial networks and the dollar system, representing a strategic shift from "military balancer" to "powerful economic observer."1 The Kurdish region faces mounting pressure from Baghdad's consolidation of power and Iran's strategic containment efforts, making political unity essential to preserve its autonomy as a semi-autonomous entity.
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