伊朗议长加利巴夫于2026年9月16日发布了一份修改版泰勒规则公式，在传统货币政策框架中新增了霍尔木兹海峡和曼德布海峡两个变量1。加利巴夫表示"不能用25个基点对付一个卡点"1，暗示伊朗可能通过控制这两条全球油运要道来影响美联储的利率决策。
这一举措反映了伊朗试图通过能源市场链条增加美国债务成本的战略意图。根据数据，2026年9月21日美国柴油价格达到每加仑6.53美元，创下历史新高，较战前每加仑3.76美元上涨约74%1。同期美国整体通胀率为3.4%，其中能源价格上涨16%1。这一物价上升环境促使美联储提高借贷成本，2026年2月26日至9月24日间，美国30年期抵押贷款利率从5.98%上升至7.03%1。
利率上升直接推高了美国的债务负担。截至2026年9月21日，美国国债总额约40.1万亿美元1，其中2026财年前11个月的国债利息支出约1.05万亿美元，已超过军费支出8330亿美元1。与此同时，美国通过能源主导权战略予以回应：2025年美国石油日产量创纪录达1360万桶，超越俄罗斯和沙特之和1；2026年4月美国原油出口创纪录560万桶/天，同比增长21%1；美国还于2026年9月1日与委内瑞拉临时政府签署协议，获得17个油田100年开采权1。
Iranian Speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf released a modified Taylor rule formula on September 16, 2026, that incorporates the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb as variables in monetary policy calculations.1 In his statement, Ghalibaf remarked that "you can't 25bp a chokepoint," suggesting Iran's intent to use control over critical oil shipping routes to influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.1
The move reflects an apparent Iranian strategy to raise U.S. borrowing costs by manipulating global energy markets. Rising oil prices have already driven American diesel to $6.53 per gallon by September 21, 2026—a historic high representing a 74 percent increase from the pre-conflict price of $3.76.1 Overall U.S. inflation reached 3.4 percent in August 2026, with energy prices surging 16 percent during the same month.1 These conditions have pushed 30-year mortgage rates upward from 5.98 percent on February 26 to 7.03 percent by September 24, 2026.1 The escalating debt service burden has become acute: in the first eleven months of fiscal 2026, the U.S. government spent approximately $1.05 trillion on national debt interest alone, exceeding military spending of $833 billion.1 As of September 21, 2026, total U.S. national debt stands at approximately $40.1 trillion.1
The United States has pursued an energy dominance strategy to counter such pressures. American oil production reached a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025, surpassing combined output from Russia and Saudi Arabia.1 Crude oil exports hit a record 5.6 million barrels per day in April 2026, marking a 21 percent year-over-year increase.1 Additionally, the U.S. signed an agreement with Venezuela's interim government on September 1, 2026, securing 100-year extraction rights to 17 oil fields.1
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