巴西正在进行2026年总统选举第一轮投票2。现任总统卢拉与前总统博索纳罗之子弗拉维奥·博索纳罗展开激烈竞争2。80岁的卢拉是巴西左派资深政治人物，已任职三届，而45岁的弗拉维奥·博索纳罗是律师出身、曾任里约热内卢参议员2。
根据选举规则，候选人需获得超过50%的有效票数方可在首轮直接获胜，否则三周后将进行第二轮决选2。新任领导人定于2027年1月5日上台2。
矿产和农业大州米纳斯吉拉斯州成为本次选举的关键摇摆州。该州拥有2100万人口，自1980年巴西民主恢复以来，尚无候选人在未赢得该州的情况下当选总统2。历史数据显示，2018年博索纳罗在米纳斯州领先超过170万票最终当选，而2022年卢拉则以少于5万票的优势重新夺回该州并赢得全国选举2。
Brazil conducted the first round of its 2026 presidential election, pitting incumbent President Lula against Flavio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old lawyer and former Rio de Janeiro senator who is the son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro 2. Lula, 80, is a veteran left-wing politician seeking to extend his tenure after having already served three terms 2. To win in the first round, candidates needed to secure more than 50 percent of valid votes; absent such a threshold, a runoff between the two leading contenders would take place three weeks later 2. The winner will assume office on January 5, 2027 2.
The race has been characterized by intense polarization 1. Flavio Bolsonaro's father, the former president, is currently imprisoned and serving a 27-year sentence for his role in a failed military coup plot 2. The state of Minas Gerais has emerged as a crucial battleground in the contest 2. With a population of 21 million, Minas Gerais is considered a swing state where, since democracy was restored in 1980, no candidate has won the presidency without first winning that state 2. In the 2018 election, Bolsonaro led by more than 1.7 million votes in Minas Gerais and went on to win nationally, while in 2022 Lula reclaimed the state by a margin of fewer than 50,000 votes and secured the nationwide victory 2.
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