澳大利亚政界对移民政策改革的幅度存在明显分歧。1One Nation党领导人保琳·汉森主张在三年内减少75万临时移民，主要包括国际学生和技术移民家属，使净海外移民转为负数，之后设定永久上限为13万。1与之相比，工党则支持以22.5万作为净海外移民的长期目标。1
加拿大的移民紧缩经验为理解这种政策权衡提供了参考。1加拿大已将人口增长从2024年初的3.1%放缓至0.5%，同时将临时移民占人口的比例从峰值7.6%降至5%。1尽管采取了这些措施，加拿大的经济表现相对韧性十足：失业率未见上升，人均经济表现似乎有所改善，虽然CD Howe Institute预测2026年实际GDP增长可能不超过0.5%。1
澳大利亚的劳动力市场环境与加拿大的情况截然不同。1澳大利亚当前失业率为4.6%，面临广泛的劳动力短缺，而人口仅比疫前趋势线高0.2%，远低于加拿大人口高出疫前趋势线5%的水平。1加拿大的移民紧缩是在失业率高企的背景下进行的，这与澳大利亚目前紧张的劳动力市场形成了鲜明对比。1
Australia's political landscape is divided over how aggressively to reduce immigration. One Nation has proposed cutting 750,000 temporary migrants over three years, primarily targeting international students and skilled workers' family members, with the aim of turning net overseas migration negative before establishing a permanent cap of 130,000 1. By contrast, the Labor Party is pursuing a long-term target of 225,000 net overseas migrants 1.
To assess the potential economic consequences of such dramatic policy shifts, policymakers are examining Canada's recent experience with immigration tightening. Canada has slowed population growth from 3.1% in early 2024 to 0.5%, and reduced temporary migrants' share of the population from a peak of 7.6% to 5% 1. Despite these constraints, Canada's economy has remained resilient: unemployment has not risen, and per capita economic performance appears to be improving, though the CD Howe Institute projects real GDP growth may not exceed 0.5% in 2026 1.
The economic contexts of the two countries differ significantly. Australia faces widespread labor shortages with an unemployment rate of 4.6%, while its population has grown only 0.2% above pre-pandemic trend levels 1. Canada, by contrast, implemented its immigration restrictions against a backdrop of elevated unemployment 1. These divergent labor market conditions suggest that the impact of Australia's potential migration cuts could differ materially from Canada's experience.
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