波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那人口约310万，其中波什尼亚克人占50%，塞尔维亚人占31%，克罗地亚人占15%1。该国的政治结构源于1995年《达顿协议》，采用轮值三元总席制和两个半自治实体的设置，以平衡三个主要族群的权力1。这一安排直接源于1992年至1995年的战争，该战争造成约10万人丧生，220万人因"族群清洗"而流离失所1。
战争结束近30年后，波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那仍受分离主义威胁困扰。国际高代办公室拥有被称为"波恩权力"的广泛权限，可解除民选官员职务、立法、建立新政府机构并推翻国家民主机构1。塞族实体最具影响力的领导人米洛拉德·多迪克支持分离主义立场，获得贝尔格莱德、莫斯科和特朗普政府的支持1。与此同时，克罗地亚族也寻求获得更多自治权1。
面对族群分歧的困局，该国寄希望通过欧盟一体化实现经济和政治突破。波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那在2016年正式提交欧盟成员资格申请1，2024年初欧洲理事会批准启动谈判1。
Bosnia and Herzegovina remains deeply shaped by its war-torn past and complex ethnic divisions, nearly three decades after the end of its devastating conflict.1 The country's population of approximately 3.1 million comprises roughly 50 percent Bosniaks, 31 percent Serbs, and 15 percent Croats.1 The 1992-1995 war claimed around 100,000 lives and displaced 2.2 million people through ethnic cleansing.1
The nation's political structure, established by the 1995 Dayton Agreement, reflects attempts to balance power among its three main ethnic groups through a rotating three-person presidency and two semi-autonomous entities.1 The Office of the High Representative holds extensive authority under the so-called "Bonn Powers," including the ability to dismiss elected officials, pass legislation, establish new government institutions, and overturn national democratic bodies.1 However, the necessity of this international oversight has become increasingly contested in recent years.
Ethnic tensions persist as obstacles to progress. Milorad Dodik, the most influential leader of the Serb entity, advocates for separatism and has secured backing from Belgrade, Moscow, and the Trump administration.1 Simultaneously, Croatian leaders seek greater autonomy. Despite these divisions, the nation has pursued European integration as a potential pathway to break political and economic stalemate.1 Bosnia and Herzegovina formally submitted its EU membership application in 2016, and in early 2024 the European Council approved the start of accession negotiations.1
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