英国保守党领导人凯米·贝德诺克在就任党首一年后，其领导地位已显著巩固。一年前保守党民调跌至14-16%的历史低位，党内议员曾计划在11月发动领导力挑战，但如今局势已大幅改观1。贝德诺克通过改进经济政策沟通、提升首相质询表现及处理党内分裂等举措，赢得了民调和党员支持的提升1。
从民调数据看，贝德诺克的个人支持度从5月的-27升至最近的-3（Opinium数据），实现了从负值向中性的转变1。保守党整体民调也从历史低位回升至低20%水平1。党员方面，贝德诺克在ConservativeHome最新民调中的净满意度达87%1。在2024年保守党选民中，64%表示支持她，相比2019年选民中的56%有所提升1。
保守党与改革英国党之间的竞争格局也在演变1。罗伯特·詹里克和苏埃拉·布拉弗曼向改革英国党的党派变动被视为贝德诺克的一个重要转折点，此后保守党已偶尔在民调中超越改革英国党，扭转了两年前被其领先的局面1。然而，贝德诺克的地位仍存在脆弱之处。YouGov调查显示，40%的人用负面词汇形容她，仅30%用正面词汇1。党内人士警告，如果保守党无法持续超越改革英国党，贝德诺克的未来仍不完全安全1。
Kemi Badenoch's standing as leader of the Conservative Party has solidified considerably over the past year, marking a dramatic reversal from the turbulent period when party MPs were preparing to challenge her leadership.1 The Conservative Party's polling has recovered from a historic low of 14–16% to the low 20s, while Badenoch's personal approval rating has improved from minus 27 in May to minus 3 according to Opinium data.1 Among current Conservative voters, 64% now support her compared with 56% of 2019 Conservative voters, and her net satisfaction rating among party members has reached 87% in the latest ConservativeHome poll.1
Badenoch has strengthened her position through improved communication of economic policy, enhanced performance during Prime Minister's Questions, and management of party divisions.1 The defection of Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman to Reform UK has been identified as a turning point that benefited her leadership trajectory.1 Despite these gains, the party's overall brand remains damaged: a YouGov survey found that 40% of people use negative language to describe Badenoch while 30% employ positive descriptions.1 Party insiders have cautioned that Badenoch's future security is not entirely assured if the Conservatives fail to sustain their occasional polling leads over Reform UK.1
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