伯尔尼大学领导的国际研究团队通过建立1000年地震活动模型，发现南加州圣安德烈斯和圣哈辛托断层的构造应力已达到千年模拟历史中的最高水平1。其中，圣哈辛托-伯纳迪诺段应力达3.6兆帕，圣安德烈斯莫哈韦南段应力达2.8兆帕1。
研究发现卡洪隘口充当"地震门"的角色，在两条断层同时承受高应力的情况下，可能促成跨越两个断层系统的破裂1。1812年赖特伍德地震曾穿过卡洪隘口并破裂两个断层系统1，为这一机制提供了历史例证。受影响区域包括洛杉矶、圣贝纳迪诺、河滨县和科切拉谷1。
研究团队强调，这项研究并非对地震何时发生的预测1。
An international research team led by the University of Bern has discovered that tectonic stress on Southern California's San Andreas and San Jacinto faults has reached its highest level in a simulated 1,000-year record 1. By modeling a millennium of earthquake activity, the researchers found that the San Jacinto-San Bernardino segment is experiencing stress of 3.6 megapascals, while the Mojave South segment of the San Andreas fault registers 2.8 megapascals, both representing maximum values across the study period 1.
The research identifies the Cajon Pass as an "earthquake gate"—a mechanism that could potentially trigger ruptures spanning both fault systems when both are under elevated stress simultaneously 1. Historical precedent supports this possibility: the 1812 Righwood earthquake previously ruptured across the Cajon Pass and affected both fault systems, and the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake, measuring 7.9 magnitude, stands as the last similarly significant seismic event in the Los Angeles region 1. The affected area encompasses Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside County, and the Coachella Valley 1.
Researcher Liliane Burkhard emphasized that "this research is not a prediction of when an earthquake will occur" 1.
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