美国在线预测市场平台Polymarket允许全球用户对大型英国银行破产进行投注，引发英国监管部门的警觉。1用户已在HSBC和劳埃德银行等机构倒闭预测上累计下注77507美元（58530英镑）。1虽然英国、美国、加拿大和欧盟的居民被禁止在该平台参与，但约150个国家的用户仍能进行交易。1
英国金融行为监管局（FCA）与国际监管机构就预测市场进行了对话。1欧洲证券和市场管理局（ESMA）已对预测市场中内幕交易案件增加发出警告。1英国监管机构和政策制定者对平台可能因内幕交易或市场操纵引发银行挤兑表示担忧。财政委员会成员、自由民主党议员Bobby Dean表示应防止此类情况发生。1
对于监管关切，Polymarket首席法律官Neal Kumar辩称该平台将此前仅限精英交易者的市场信息民主化，其运作方式与信用违约互换市场类似。1监管机构指出曾出现相关风险事件，包括2月美以对伊朗行动前新建钱包在Polymarket上产生120万美元利润，以及4月巴黎戴高乐机场天气传感器遭疑似篡改。1
Users of the U.S.-based prediction market platform Polymarket have accumulated $77,507 (£58,530) in positions betting on whether major British banks including HSBC and Lloyds will collapse before year-end 1. Although residents of the UK, United States, Canada, and European Union are officially prohibited from trading on the platform, users from approximately 150 countries can still participate 1.
The emergence of these markets has prompted concern among British financial regulators and policymakers, who fear that insider trading and market manipulation could trigger bank runs 1. The UK Financial Conduct Authority has engaged in discussions with international regulatory bodies regarding prediction markets, while the European Securities and Markets Authority has warned of rising insider trading cases within such platforms 1. Regulators have cited instances including a February incident where newly created wallets generated $1.2 million in profits on Polymarket ahead of U.S. military action against Iran, and an April case involving suspected tampering with weather sensors at Paris's Charles de Gaulle Airport 1. Financial Affairs Committee member and Liberal Democrat MP Bobby Dean emphasized the need to prevent platforms from being exploited to trigger bank runs 1.
Polymarket's Chief Legal Officer Neal Kumar has defended the platform, arguing it democratizes market information previously available only to elite traders and functions similarly to credit default swap markets 1.
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