哈佛公共卫生学院研究人员发表的多篇论文声称核电站附近居民的癌症发病率和死亡率更高,但这些研究的科学有效性遭到质疑1。Yazan Alwadi领导的研究团队分别于2025年12月在《Environmental Health》和3月在《Nature Communications》上发表了相关论文,其中地方研究以马萨诸塞州为范围,全国范围研究则使用了120至200公里的暴露区域划定标准1。
批评者通过复制该研究的方法论进行验证,结果表明这套方法对任何地标都能产生正相关结果,从而暴露了根本的方法论缺陷1。研究人员将相同方法应用于沃尔玛、私立四年制大学、棒球场和NFL球场等地标,结果显示这些地点分别与220万、159万、94.4万和41.8万例癌症死亡存在关联——这些数字明显不合理,说明该方法无法建立因果关系,仅能显示关联1。此外,核电站附近的年均辐射剂量仅为职业限制的2%或更低1。批评者指出,这些研究本质上属于生态学研究,其局限性在于无法排除混淆变量,因此不足以支撑因果结论1。
A critical analysis has challenged research from Harvard School of Public Health claiming elevated cancer rates near nuclear power plants.1 The critique demonstrates that the study's methodology produces positive correlations with virtually any landmark, including Walmart, private universities, and sports venues, suggesting fundamental flaws in the analytical approach rather than evidence of causation.1
The Harvard team, led by Yazan Alwadi, published findings in December 2025 in Environmental Health examining Massachusetts residents near nuclear facilities, followed by a nationwide study in Nature Communications in March.1 Both studies classified areas within 120 kilometers (Massachusetts study) to 200 kilometers (national study) of nuclear plants as exposure zones.1 However, when the same methodology was applied to other landmarks, the results suggested Walmart was associated with 2.2 million cancer deaths, private four-year universities with 1.59 million, baseball stadiums with 944,000, and NFL stadiums with 418,000.1
The analysis underscores that the research, spanning 2000–2018 data, identifies only association rather than causation, a limitation inherent to ecological studies.1 Additionally, the average annual radiation dose near nuclear plants was found to be 2 percent or lower than occupational exposure limits.1
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