10月及国庆假期全国自然灾害风险形势发布

国家防灾减灾救灾委员会办公室、应急管理部会同自然资源部、水利部、农业农村部、中国气象局、国家能源局、国家林草局等部门召开会商会，发布2026年10月及国庆假期全国自然灾害风险形势1。预计10月份华中、华南、西南等地洪涝和风雹灾害风险较高，其中部分地区降水偏多2成以上，部分地区偏多5—8成1。西北太平洋和南海海域预计有3—4个台风生成，接近常年同期水平，其中有1—2个台风将登陆或明显影响我国1。

我国沿海可能发生1次灾害性台风风暴潮过程和1次灾害性温带风暴潮过程，近海海域可能发生4—5次灾害性海浪过程1。同时，多地森林火险等级为较高危险，部分地区草原火险等级也为较高危险1。部分地区还可能出现阶段性干旱，降水较常年同期偏少2—5成1。

由于国庆假期正值出行高峰，各地需要重点防范上述灾害对交通、户外活动和农业生产带来的影响1。

The Office of the National Committee for Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Relief, in coordination with the Emergency Management Department and multiple other agencies including the Ministry of Natural Resources, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China Meteorological Administration, National Energy Administration, and National Forestry and Grassland Administration, held a consultation meeting to release the natural disaster risk outlook for October 2026 and the National Day holiday period across the country.1

October is anticipated to bring elevated risks of flooding, hail storms, and other weather-related disasters across central, southern, and southwestern regions.1 The outlook projects that one to two typhoons will make landfall or significantly impact China during the month.1 In affected areas, precipitation is expected to exceed normal levels by more than 20 percent, with some regions experiencing increases of 5 to 8 times the typical amount.1 In the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, three to four typhoons are forecast to develop, approaching historical averages for the same period.1 China's coastal zones may experience one catastrophic typhoon-induced storm surge event and one severe extratropical cyclone storm surge event.1 Additionally, four to five destructive sea wave processes are possible in nearshore waters.1

Forest fire danger levels are rated as relatively high in many areas, while grassland fire risk is classified as relatively high in some regions.1 Meanwhile, certain areas face water scarcity, with precipitation potentially falling 2 to 5 times below normal levels compared to the same period historically, potentially resulting in staged drought conditions.1 With the National Day holiday coinciding with peak travel season, local authorities are urged to prioritize prevention measures to mitigate impacts on transportation infrastructure, outdoor recreational activities, and agricultural production.1