俄乌局势阴影下的拉脱维亚大选

拉脱维亚将于10月3日举行议会选举，俄罗斯安全威胁成为本次选举的核心议题1。无人机入侵和混合威胁等因素推动了各党派对国防支出和北约防御的强调1。作为北极星成员国中少数承诺将国防支出占国内生产总值比例维持在5%的国家，拉脱维亚自2022年以来将来自俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的进口减少了90%以上1。

民调显示，60%的拉脱维亚人支持减少对俄罗斯的依赖，而20%支持与俄罗斯建立更紧密的关系1。这反映了国内在对俄政策上的深刻分化。德国已在拉脱维亚Lielvarde军事基地部署4架台风战斗机，该基地距离首都里加约60公里1。最近一次无人机入侵事件发生在9月15日的立陶宛，无人机被北约战斗机击落1。

选举中存在显著分歧：多数党派支持对俄制裁和防御投资，但少数党派主张更务实的经济政策1。民调显示United List领先，Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance居第二，Latvia First排名第三且支持率超过9%1。然而，Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance领导人Stepanenko从俄罗斯商人父亲处获得约€400,000的礼物，引发了关于党派与俄罗斯联系的质疑1。拉脱维亚约三分之一的人口在家中使用俄语，这使得语言政策也成为了选举中的分化议题1。

Latvia held parliamentary elections on October 3rd amid heightened security concerns over Russian threats, which emerged as the defining issue reshaping the country's political landscape 1. The specter of Russian military aggression has prompted major political parties to emphasize increased defense spending and NATO deterrence, though divisions persist over how best to respond to the broader security challenge 1.

Germany's deployment of four Eurofighter jets to Latvia's Lielvarde military base, located approximately 60 kilometers from Riga, underscored the elevated threat environment 1. Latvia remains among a select group of NATO members committed to maintaining defense spending at 5 percent of GDP 1. Since 2022, the country has slashed imports from Russia and Belarus by over 90 percent 1. According to polling data, 60 percent of Latvians support reducing dependency on Russia, while 20 percent favor closer economic ties with Moscow 1.

The election revealed deep fissures within Latvian society. Approximately one-third of the population speaks Russian at home, reflecting historical and demographic complexities that have fueled debate over language policy and Russia relations 1. Notably, Stepanenko, leader of the Sovereign Power and Young Latvians Alliance party, received approximately €400,000 in gifts from his father, a Russian businessman, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest 1. Preliminary polling indicated the United List leading, with Sovereign Power and Young Latvians Alliance in second place and Latvia First securing over 9 percent support 1. A recent drone intrusion into Lithuanian airspace on September 15th, resulting in NATO fighter interception, illustrated the concrete security pressures facing the Baltic region 1.