以色列将在不到一个月内举行大选，这场投票可能改变自2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击以来国家的政治格局1。民调显示，总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡领导的联盟处于劣势地位，预计仅获得51个席位，远低于组建政府所需的61个席位门槛，而反对派阵营则预计赢得52个席位，同样未能达到执政所需的多数1。反对派领导人加迪·艾森科特所领导的亚沙尔党民调领先，预计获得22个席位，相比之下内塔尼亚胡的利库德党仅获18个席位1。
然而，两大政治阵营都面临组建政府的困难。艾森科特因拒绝与代表巴勒斯坦裔以色列人的政党联合而陷入僵局1。同时，以色列社会深刻分裂，国家对主要机构的信任度大幅下滑，从2012年的61%跌至2025年的34%1。在选民关切方面，68%的犹太受访者表示10月7日将成为决定其投票方式的核心因素1。此外，过去两年食品价格上升9.5%创历史新高1，进一步加重了以色列社会的悲观情绪。
大选前夕，以色列政治局势仍存在诸多悬而未决的问题。2024年最高法院曾裁定哈雷迪人（超正统犹太人）的兵役豁免缺乏法律依据1。选举委员会已投票禁止拉姆党和联合名单参选，理由是这些政党支持恐怖主义，该决定目前正在最高法院受审1。更值得注意的是，巴勒斯坦裔以色列人的政治参与热情明显下降，70%表示不愿在陌生人面前表达政治观点，而2016年这一比例仅为45%1。
Israel is set to hold a general election within weeks that could mark a turning point for the nation following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack.1 Polls indicate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition is positioned to fall short of the 61 seats required to form a government, while the opposition faces its own obstacles in assembling a viable majority.1
Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot's Yesh Atid party is projected to win 22 seats and lead polling, compared to Netanyahu's Likud party, which is expected to secure 18 seats.1 However, neither the opposition alliance, forecast to capture 52 seats, nor Netanyahu's camp, anticipated to hold 51 seats, appears capable of reaching the governing threshold.1 The situation is further complicated by Eisenkot's refusal to form a coalition with parties representing Palestinian-Israeli citizens, limiting his path to majority control.1
Public confidence in Israeli institutions has deteriorated significantly, with average trust across eight major institutions dropping from 61 percent in 2012 to 34 percent in 2025.1 Among Jewish respondents, 68 percent cite the October 7 attack as a core factor determining their voting decision.1 Economic grievances have compounded public discontent, with food prices rising 9.5 percent over the past two years, marking a historic high.1 The issue of military service exemptions for Haredi, or ultra-Orthodox Jewish citizens, has also become contentious, following a 2024 Supreme Court ruling that found their exemptions lacked legal basis.1
The electoral process itself faces complications, as Israel's election committee has voted to bar the Ra'am party and the Joint List from participating, citing support for terrorism—a decision currently under Supreme Court review.1 Meanwhile, political self-censorship has grown markedly among Palestinian-Israeli citizens, with 70 percent now expressing reluctance to voice political opinions in front of strangers, up sharply from 45 percent in 2016.1
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