波黑定于10月4日举行大选，选举国家和实体两级最高权力机构1。这场选举将在国家面临严峻挑战的背景下进行：过去十年间，波黑因移民流失了约60万人，约占人口的六分之一1。20至29岁年龄段人口流出速度最快，自2009年以来该国的死亡率每年都超过出生率1。
尽管国民普遍关注就业、物价和腐败等切身问题，但选举政治仍被族群分裂主导1。候选人将重点放在民族身份问题上，而非寻求解决这些实际困境1。波黑由塞族占多数的塞族共和国和波族-克族占多数的波黑联邦两个实体组成，另有布尔琪区，全国共设立14个不同级别的政府和议会1。
作为欧盟候选国，波黑的改革进展停滞不前1。2024年波黑获准开启入盟谈判，但根据欧盟进度报告，其改革准备就绪分数在一年内从4.14降至2.91（满分10），是所有候选国中跌幅最大的1。在113项欧盟入盟所需改革中，至今尚未有任何一项被落实1。这个巴尔干国家正成为俄美欧等大国地缘政治竞争的舞台1。
Bosnia and Herzegovina will hold elections on October 4 to select leaders at the national and entity levels 1. The poll is taking place against a backdrop of severe demographic decline and political paralysis, with ethnic divisions continuing to dominate the campaign at the expense of pressing economic concerns.
The country has experienced catastrophic population loss over the past decade, with approximately 600,000 people—roughly one-sixth of the 3.5 million recorded in the 2013 census—leaving through emigration 1. Young adults aged 20 to 29 have departed at the fastest rate, while the nation's death rate has consistently exceeded its birth rate annually since 2009 1. Despite these challenges, electoral discourse remains fixated on ethnic identity rather than addressing voter priorities such as employment, inflation, and corruption 1.
Bosnia's complex governance structure, comprising the Serb-majority Republika Srpska, the Bosniak-Croat-majority Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the Brčko District, is mirrored in its fragmented institutional framework of 14 different levels of government and parliament 1. As an EU candidate country since 2022 that was granted permission to open accession negotiations in 2024, the nation faces mounting pressure to implement reforms 1. However, progress has stalled dramatically: the EU's readiness score for Bosnia declined from 4.14 to 2.91 on a 10-point scale within a single year—the steepest drop among all candidates—and none of the 113 required EU reforms have been implemented to date 1. The election is also occurring amid broader regional geopolitical tensions, as neighboring Serbia is scheduled to hold its own elections on October 25 1.
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