芯片制造商长期协议导致消费级内存价格飙升

全球主要内存芯片制造商与云计算巨头签署长期供应协议，将50-70%产能分配给云服务提供商，大幅压缩消费市场供应，推高个人电脑和消费级存储设备的价格。1美光报告其16项长期协议占DRAM和NAND供应的20%和三分之一，预期完成后将占公司收入50%以上。1三星宣布已与全球前五大数据中心客户达成协议，计划将60-70%的产能分配给长期供应合同。1

过去一年，消费级内存产品价格涨幅惊人。12TB NVMe固态硬盘价格增长137%，2TB SATA固态硬盘增长183%；32GB DDR5套装增长363%，32GB DDR4套装增长294%。1个别产品涨幅更为极端，DDR5-6000 64GB套装从240美元飙升至1,300-1,400美元，涨幅约483%。1西部数据首席执行官透露正就2029、2030和2031年的长期协议进行讨论。1

云服务提供商对高端芯片的需求推动了这一市场转变。1九大云服务商的资本支出预计从2026年的9,220亿美元增至2027年的1.383万亿美元，其中DRAM和NAND占2027年支出的68%，约9,400亿美元。1亚马逊首席执行官在2026年第一季度财报中表示，高内存价格"进一步促使拥有本地基础设施的公司迁入云端"。1谷歌云营收同比增长82%，微软Azure增长43%，亚马逊AWS增速达到18个季度以来最快的36.7%。1

长期供应协议打破了传统市场周期性，中小型企业被迫转向云基础设施租赁。1与此同时，新兴芯片制造商快速扩张市场份额。1长江存储已成全球第三大NAND厂商（按出货量）。1长鑫存储的全球DRAM市场份额从2025年第二季度的4%增至2026年第二季度的10%。1苹果前首席执行官蒂姆·库克在最后一次CEO财报电话会上提及"百年一遇的内存价格洪灾"；Xbox宣布8月1日起价格上调，预计2027年秋季内存价格再翻倍。1

Major memory chip manufacturers have fundamentally restructured their production allocation by signing long-term supply agreements with cloud computing giants and hyperscalers, severely constraining consumer access to RAM and solid-state drives.1 Micron reported that 16 long-term agreements account for 20 percent of its DRAM supply and one-third of its NAND production, with these contracts expected to represent over 50 percent of company revenue upon completion.1 Samsung announced that it has secured agreements with five of the world's largest data center customers and plans to allocate 60 to 70 percent of its production capacity to long-term supply contracts.1

The supply reallocation has triggered dramatic price escalation in the consumer segment. Over the past year, 2TB NVMe SSDs increased 137 percent in price, while 2TB SATA SSDs surged 183 percent, 32GB DDR5 kits climbed 363 percent, and 32GB DDR4 kits rose 294 percent.1 Certain high-performance products experienced even steeper increases: DDR5-6000 64GB kits jumped from $240 to $1,300–$1,400, representing approximately 483 percent growth.1 Apple CEO Tim Cook described the situation as a "once-in-a-century memory price flood" with "exponential price increases" in his final CEO earnings call.1 Xbox announced an August 1 price increase and projected memory prices would double again by autumn 2027.1

The cloud industry's enormous capital expenditures are driving the supply concentration. Nine major cloud service providers are projected to increase capital expenditure from $922 billion in 2026 to $1.383 trillion in 2027, with DRAM and NAND accounting for 68 percent of 2027 spending, or approximately $940 billion.1 Amazon's CEO stated in the first quarter 2026 earnings call that elevated memory prices are "further driving companies with on-premises infrastructure to migrate to the cloud."1 This trend has accelerated cloud adoption, with Google Cloud revenue growing 82 percent year-over-year, Microsoft Azure increasing 43 percent, and AWS expanding 36.7 percent—its fastest growth in 18 quarters.1

Chinese memory manufacturers are capitalizing on the constrained consumer market. Yangtze Memory Technologies has become the world's third-largest NAND producer by shipments, surpassing Kioxia, Micron, and Western Digital.1 Changxin Memory's global DRAM market share expanded from 4 percent in second quarter 2025 to 10 percent in second quarter 2026.1