距离新西兰11月7日大选还有六周，1News Verian民调最新结果显示政治格局出现变化1。根据9月23日至27日进行的民调，样本量为1,004名选民，国家党和工党的支持率均为28%，其中国家党较8月中期民调下降1个百分点，工党下滑2个百分点1。与此同时，绿党支持率上升至16%，创该民调的历史新高，增幅达4个百分点1。
右翼政治阵营（由国家党、行动党和新西兰第一党组成）相比左翼阵营维持3个百分点的领先优势1。机会党支持率为6%，在政治平衡中处于关键位置1。根据民调分析，如果机会党支持率跌至5%法定门槛以下且未赢得任何选区席位，右翼阵营将确保获得议会多数席位1。
With six weeks remaining before New Zealand's November 7 election, the latest polling data reveals a significant shift in voter sentiment away from the country's traditional power brokers.1 A 1News Verian survey conducted from September 23 to 27, 2024, among 1,004 voters showed both the National Party and Labour Party declining to an equal 28 percent support each, down one and two percentage points respectively from mid-August levels.1 Meanwhile, the Green Party surged to 16 percent, marking a four-point gain and a new polling record for 1News Verian.1
The results underscore the growing influence of smaller parties in shaping New Zealand's political landscape. The ACT Party reached 6 percent, positioning itself as a potential kingmaker in coalition negotiations.1 The right-wing coalition comprising the National Party, ACT, and New Zealand First maintained a three-percentage-point lead over the left-wing alliance.1 However, the 5 percent electoral threshold looms large: should ACT fall below this barrier without winning an electorate seat, the right-wing bloc would secure an outright majority.1
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