澳大利亚在中美竞争中寻求战略平衡

澳大利亚正在中美两个超级大国的竞争中苦苦寻求平衡。一方面，澳大利亚不断强化与美国的军事同盟关系。美国驻澳军人数从2012年的200人增加到了2500人，澳大利亚的RAAF Tindal空军基地已升级用于支持美国B52轰炸机部署1。澳大利亚还与美国和英国签署了Aukus协议，为自身配备核潜艇1。

然而，经济现实制约着澳大利亚的战略选择。中国是澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴，双方在2015年签署了自由贸易协议1。但这一经贸关系已因地缘政治分歧而承压。2020年因新冠溯源问题引发争议后，中国对澳大利亚实施了报复性关税1。2021年澳大利亚成为首个退出中国"一带一路"倡议的国家，今年6月中国又对澳大利亚牛肉征收55%的关税1。

澳大利亚民众的态度反映出这种战略困境的复杂性。仅有31%的澳大利亚人信任美国负责任行动，28%信任中国1。与此同时，61%的澳大利亚人将中国视为经济伙伴而非安全威胁，这一比例相比之前增加了11个百分点1。更引人注目的是，51%的澳大利亚人首次认为与中国关系比与美国关系更加重要1。

Australia finds itself in an increasingly difficult position as geopolitical tensions between China and the United States intensify. The country has simultaneously strengthened its military alliance with Washington while maintaining critical economic ties to Beijing, creating a complex balancing act with significant domestic and international consequences.

On the security front, Australia has deepened its commitment to the US alliance through multiple channels. The number of American military personnel stationed in Australia has grown from 200 in 2012 to 2,500.1 RAAF Tindal air base has been upgraded to support deployments of US B-52 bombers.1 Most significantly, Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom signed the AUKUS agreement, which will equip Australia with nuclear-powered submarines.1 Additionally, Australia participates in joint military exercises with the US and Japan.1

However, Australia's strategic calculations are complicated by its economic dependence on China. China remains Australia's largest trading partner,1 a relationship formalized through a free trade agreement signed in 2015.1 Yet this economic relationship has proven fragile. In 2020, China imposed retaliatory tariffs on Australian goods following Canberra's call for an investigation into COVID-19's origins.1 More recently, in June of this year, China levied a 55 percent tariff on Australian beef.1 Further straining ties, Australia became the first nation to exit China's Belt and Road Initiative in 2021.1

Polling data reveals the internal tension Australians themselves feel about these competing relationships. While only 31 percent of Australians trust the US to act responsibly and 28 percent trust China,1 a significant 61 percent view China primarily as an economic partner rather than a security threat—a figure that has increased by 11 percentage points.1 Most strikingly, 51 percent of Australians now believe their relationship with China is more important than their relationship with the United States, marking the first time this sentiment has achieved majority support.1