澳大利亚储备银行预计将在周二上调现金利率0.25个百分点，达到15年高位1。这一举措将直接增加借款人的还款负担——对于70万澳元的房贷，月还款额将增加约107澳元，100万澳元房贷的月还款则增加约152澳元1。若整个年度内继续按此幅度上调，70万澳元房贷的年累计增幅将达424澳元，100万澳元房贷为606澳元1。
加息周期对购房者的借贷能力造成明显冲击。单次利率上升将使平均工资收入者的最大借贷额减少11,200澳元，双收入家庭则减少22,400澳元1。若年底前再上升两次，年内双收入家庭的借贷能力总计将下降116,200澳元1。当前市场对后续加息预期存在分歧——澳大利亚四大银行预计仅再上升一次至4.60%，而澳新银行（ANZ）预计还有两次上升空间至4.85%1。
承受能力方面，39%的受访者表示若利率继续上升将难以承担房贷1，9%的人正考虑出售房产1。随着加息推进，平均浮动利率预计将升至6.49%，市场最低浮动利率估计为5.94%1。
The Reserve Bank of Australia is anticipated to raise the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points on Tuesday, marking the fourth consecutive increase and pushing rates to a 15-year high 1. For borrowers, the impact will be immediate and substantial: a homeowner with an A$700,000 mortgage will see their monthly repayment rise by approximately A$107, accumulating to A$424 annually, while those carrying an A$1 million loan will face an additional A$152 monthly or A$606 per year 1.
The rate pressure is already straining household finances and restricting borrowing capacity. Survey data indicates that 39% of respondents report difficulty sustaining mortgage payments if rates continue climbing, with 9% considering selling their properties 1. A single rate increase will reduce borrowing capacity for an average-income earner by A$11,200, or A$22,400 for dual-income couples 1. Should two additional rate rises occur before year's end, coupled household borrowing power could decline by a total of A$116,200 1.
Market expectations for further tightening remain divided. Australia's four major banks anticipate only one additional rate rise, bringing the cash rate to 4.60%, while ANZ forecasts two more increases to 4.85% 1. The average floating mortgage rate is projected to reach 6.49%, with market lows estimated at 5.94% 1.
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