评论员约翰·奎金近日评议全球战略家维克托·什维茨的著作《暴风雨前的黄昏》，该书分析了自1970年代开始的新自由主义时代如何逐步衰退1。什维茨将新自由主义的衰落归咎于婴儿潮一代1，但奎金对这一代际分析框架提出了尖锐批评。
奎金指出，按代际划分的分析框架已被学术界广泛否定1。Pew研究中心在2025年最终承认了对代际分析的批评具有有效性，宣布将不再大量使用代际视角进行研究1。更重要的是，历史事实本身也不支持什维茨的论点：新自由主义改革实际上由撒切尔（生于1925年）和里根（生于1911年）等更年长的领导人推动1。奎金强调，这两位领导人在30岁以下的选民中仅获得少数支持，正是年长选民将他们送入权力1。
奎金认为该书第三部分关于2008年全球金融危机后威权主义兴起的分析最具价值1。该书还讨论了通用基本收入和央行数字货币等新经济政策方向1，经济学家查尔斯·古德哈特则警告，"未来30到40年将非常困难"1。
Commentator John Quiggin has critiqued global strategist Viktor Shvets's book Twilight of the Boom, which traces the decline of the neoliberal era that began in the 1970s.1 Quiggin argues that Shvets's attribution of neoliberalism's collapse to the baby boomer generation is both academically discredited and historically inaccurate.1 Shvets contends that boomers bear responsibility for the system's unraveling, yet Quiggin points out that the neoliberal reforms of the 1980s were actually driven by older leaders such as Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, who were born in 1925 and 1911 respectively, rather than by baby boomers.1 Thatcher and Reagan secured victory among voters due to support from older voters, not younger ones under 30.1 Despite the demographic argument's limitations, Quiggin notes that the book's third section, which examines the rise of global authoritarianism following the 2008 financial crisis, offers the most substantive analysis.1
The neoliberal period, characterized by financial deregulation, privatization, and faith in market mechanisms, has progressively weakened since the crisis marked a decisive rupture in the neoliberal consensus.1 Economist Charles Goodhart warned that "the next 30 to 40 years will be very difficult," signaling broader concerns about the era ahead.1 Notably, the Pew Research Center acknowledged in 2025 that generational analysis carries significant limitations and declared it would no longer rely heavily on generational frameworks in its research.1 The book explores alternative economic policy directions, including universal basic income and central bank digital currencies, as potential models for the post-neoliberal world.1
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